Subject: Re: Exploding CAPEtown
Totally agree with the crystal ball comment, I've been working on a "walk forward" analysis where you compute the trend line up to "now" to predict returns in the future of "now". Will report on that, and other stuff, when I get time.
I have a love/hate relationship with FAPE2. I did not want to see it 'work' (predict future returns as well as CAPE), but given that it does work it's interesting to understand why.