Subject: INDL & the end of the month
Various strategies for investing around the end of the month were explored in MI-land some 20 years ago. Back at the beginning of 2022 I looked into the performance of various ETFs at the end/beginning of the month. INDL, which is a 2x-long ETF for Indian stocks, backtested well. It would seem to be a relatively low-risk way to invest in a developing market. INDL started in the spring of 2010; here are the results since then.
Entry is at the close of the fourth day before to the last day of the previous month. Exit is at the close of the second day of the current month. Thus, for July 2024 one would have bought on the close of 6/24 and sold at the close of 7/2 for a 3.6% gain. Total time in the market would be six days.
Here are the average monthly returns for each year (not compounded).
# of Ave Buy &
months Return Hold
2010 9 3.0% 9 x 3.0 = 27% 28%
2011 12 3.5 12 x 3.5 = 42% -67
2012 12 4.9 12 x 4.9 = 58% 21
2013 12 0.4 12 x 0.4 = 4% -31
2014 12 2.2 12 x 2.2 = 27% 46
2015 12 3.1 12 x 3.1 = 37% -33
2016 12 4.8 12 x 4.8 = 58% -17
2017 12 3.4 12 x 3.4 = 40% 127
2018 12 0.9 12 x 0.9 = 11% -35
2019 12 0.6 12 x 0.6 = 7% 2
2020 12 3.5 12 x 3.5 = 42% -36
2021 12 2.7 12 x 2.7 = 33% 36
2022 12 3.2 12 x 3.2 = 38% -23
2023 12 1.6 12 x 1.6 = 19% 24
2024 9 1.0 9 x 1.0 = 9% 33
DB2