Subject: Re: Let’s See If This Pans Out for Putin
Uh, huh. And are there no potential partisans behind Russian lines?

*shakes head*.

You know that's not what was being argued. We mean that the conflict hasn't reached the point where insurgency is the significant vector for inflicting military losses on Russia, because Russia has utterly failed to eliminate the Ukrainian regular army. There's potential partisans behind Russian lines, and no doubt there's some "resistance" in the areas that are being occupied - but that stuff is trivial compared to the losses that Russia continually suffers from Ukraine's regular forces.

So according to you Russia will…just leave once Putin is “toast”.

No - Putin is "toast" prospectively because he's embroiled himself in a conflict that he can't win as long as the West supplies Ukraine with guns and money. Russia will just leave at some point, because it's not worth it for them to keep fighting this war forever for whatever trivial benefit (if any) holding a portion of Ukraine by force brings them.

This isn't simply us imprinting Western values onto Russia. The same thing happened to Russia in Afghanistan. At some point, continuing to fight without ever winning the conflict just isn't in your country's best interest. If Russia can't end the war in Ukraine by eliminating the Ukrainian army, then it can't gain any benefit from holding the land that its army sits on. Or at least, not any benefit that's worth continuing the fight forever. Unlike Ukraine, there's nothing existential about this conflict for Russia. They can always leave and go home and be back to the status quo before they invaded - something that's not an option for Ukraine if they give up.

That's the asymmetry that lets the smaller countries usually win if they're able to push back hard enough and long enough, even if they can't drive the invading country out of the area physically. The larger country never loses much if they give up and go home, while the smaller country always loses almost everything if they give up. That asymmetry is why countries in the modern era don't expand their territory through armed conquest overcoming anything but token opposition anymore. The costs are too high if the other nation fights back with resources from other countries, and physically expanding your country doesn't bring you significant gains. It's very rare for continuing these fights to be in the best interest of the invading country.