Subject: Re: Unite Group (UTG), UK, falling knife.
> My screen says close was 495.40 : )

okie dokie let's take a look...

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-mar...

This handy site is free if you register.

Last two trades before market close were:

16:29:59 7853 bid: 502.50, offer 504.00, price paid 504.00, 1000 shares.
16:30:00 7854 bid: 502.50, offer 504.00, price paid 502.47, 97 shares.

(this is what I saw, I don't normally check the trade list by hand)

(Particularly since there's been a lot of buggy prices from LSE lately after 16:30, even bid/spread being reversed.)

Then 5 minutes after market close there is an absolutely massive uncrossing trade marked at 495.40 of 2,559,803 shares.

then other trades at 580-ish (late reported)

So it seems you are correct, the final closing official price is 495.40. Wow!

p.s. re: max greed, yes indeed, I've done the same calculation :-)

but also, add on the growth on the dividends, via inflation & retained earnings, because if you assume it takes 13 years to get there, you'd like to hope that over 13 years the divis will go up a bit as well over that time. So 8%/year price return, plus 7%/year dividends, plus ?% inflation/reinvested earnings growth causing dividends to rise. Not a huge impact, but not nothing either, depending on how inflation plays out in years to come.

If we get super low interest rates again, there's a real chance we might revisit that kind of pricing sooner rather than later. Likewise if the government relaxes visa policy to allow more students, which is quite possible given the massive change in net migration this year versus last few years.

I have more confidence that students will be renting hall accom in Cambridge and London in 13 years time, than I do that e.g. Oracle, Paypal, Tesla etc will still be around and profitable at that time. Or for that matter, that if I invested in the US and shut my eyes for 13 years, that I would certainly be able to get my money back.

There are plenty of REITs in the UK where the price was nuked in the last couple of years then rapidly recovered. Segro, Safestore, Big Yellow, Tritax Big Box, Land Securities, British Land, Supermarket REIT, Social Housing REIT (super nuked), PHP, ... Unite was the last one to get super nuked, and will likely be the last to recover it seems.

It's one of these situations where the media narrative requires a sector to be out of favour for 6-12 months, then something else takes its place. My guess would be datacenter-related REITs getting a bad narrative in about 12-24 months time. Possibly Primary Health Properties, if the government changes its policy on inflation-uplifting in healthcare property contracts, or if their really big acquisition goes wrong e.g. if interest rates suddenly rise enough to make 55% LTV very unappealling. A big international war for example, might be enough to cause that. Or Reform getting elected - yikes.

I picked up ANOTHER little bit of Unite, just a few % extra, at 506p right before market close, because I have kicked myself for the last 6 weeks for not being brave enough to buy at 505p in December. However my regret minimisation attempt failed 5 minutes after market close today though it now seems. I am a fool! lol.

Still, who knows where we might be in 6 weeks never mind 13 years? I can't find much else that's safer and steadier to invest in. Fingers crossed.

TRS