Subject: Re: Strait closed to infinity
...this is what Rant #1 called for: long term disruption of oil supply from the Gulf, to the great enjoyment of USian big oil. The regime's shifting excuses for the war, are because they can't say the real objective out loud.

There seems merit for sure. Just out:

Shell tops profit estimates as Iran war boosts oil price, cuts share buybacks … It reported profits of $6.92bn (£5.1bn) for the first three months of the year, which was higher than analysts had expected and up from $5.58bn in the same period a year earlier.

Still, that theory would ascribe iron execution discipline based on a set strategy (Project 2025/6?) to a leadership more prone to populism and late-night tweets / decision making driven by the latest Fox News segment.

Perhaps the approach is to continuously ‚step over red lines‘ and routinely ‚break things‘ (borrowed from Musk), then opportunistically pushing for strategic goals coming into reach once the dust settles. That would also explain the shifting explanations - they are simply made up on the way as the situation develops.

I‘d look out for the situation becoming untenable at home - prices at the pump? Stocks? Bonds? - and the regime’s objectives may change on a dime. We‘ll see.