Subject: Re: "The Art of The Deal"
Please briefly explain the art of the deal for [people] who still don't understand how Trump operates even after decades of him using the same strategy for everything. Be concise.

That was the wrong question to ask. And you don't need AI to answer it. Trump has already been president. Everyone with the slightest interest already knows how he operates. The real question "Do Trump's tactics work? Are they effective?"

This is topical because stock and bond markets are roiling, automakers have announced layoffs, construction projects are being canceled across the country, demand for export shipping containers is plummeting, GDPNow is pointing towards recession, consumer confidence is the lowest in decades, and so on. The economy was strong back in January. It isn't now.

We already went through Trump Tariffs 1.0. The CBO estimates it cost the US about 0.5% of GDP and led to a real reduction in US household income.¹ And for that high cost, we got very little to show for it. Any concessions were basically just window dressing. The trade deficit continued to go up. This is not like buying a car where you can walk away if negotiations go south. The stakes are high. There is real money at stake, some of it ours.

We can also examine the results of every other major thing that Trump negotiated or promised to negotiate during his term. He promised to replace the ACA with something better, build a border wall and have Mexico pay, and advance an infrastructure bill. None of that happened. He promised to replace the Iran nuclear deal with something better. He also promised a North Korea nuclear deal. He failed negotiate either of those. He recently promised to end the Ukraine war on day 1, and just this weekend Rubio said they probably can't negotiate it. In fact, I don't recall a single piece of signature legislation that was passed on his watch.²

After four years of seeing Trump repeatedly failing to negotiate anything of any substance, it is safe to say he's not good at negotiating. My confidence that a guy who has a poor track record of success who continues to use the same objectively bad tactics will succeed this time is very low.


¹ https://www.cbo.gov/publicatio...
²The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was Paul Ryan's baby.