Subject: Signals update
As of the short trading week ended 4/17, the markets are in a definitely bearish state; however conditioned by uncertainty about what 'policy' might be espoused next week and shaded by some distinct selling of the dollar based on decreasing confidence in same.
There were some short term "bottom" indications the week of 4/7-11, which could be indicating hold until we see what comes next over 80 days. This political environment is different.

WEATHERVANE (US MKT)		-9		A Bottom?
				
Intermediate-Term	-8	BEARS/TOP	BULLS/BOTTOM	AS OF
BearCatcher	Naz NH/NL	Bear		2/21/25
BearCatcher	SMA Slope,	Bear		4/7/25
BearCatcher	99D / DBE        		Bull	        12/14/23
BC Summary	The Key	       2	        1	
Momentum, Int	26W / 52W		        Bull	        3/21/25
Momentum, Int	DMI	        Bear		                4/4/25
Momentum, IT    10/50 Crossover			                3/28/25
Momentum, Int	PPO Weekly	Bear		                4/4
Breadth, MT	PAMA Naz 50	Bear		                3/14
Breadth, MT	Breadth Confirms			        2/28
Breadth, MT	Naz Bullish %	Bear		                4/4
Breadth, MT	S&P PAMA 200	Bear		                2/21/25
Breadth Thrust	Breadth Thrust		Watch	
Correction Mode	>7% off peak	Bear		                2/28/25
Timing, Seasonal MACD on RUT		         Bull	        10/16/24
Interest Rates	Corp Bond Index	Bear		                4/11/25
VIX	Volatility	        Bear		                3/28
Valuation	Sjuggerud               mod	                3/14
Hindenburg	Omen			                        12/16
BearMktWarning	(NazComp)	Bear		                3/7 (since)

Short Term	Short Term/Top Warning	1		
Momentum, ST	PPO Daily		         Bull	         4/17/25
Breadth, ST	SP600 PAMA20	Bear		                 4/4
Momentum, Int	# 26 week highs			                 3/28/25
Breadth, ST	PAMA5D %OFF 21dh			         4/17/25
Top, ST	        PAMA Divergence@hi	                         2/18/25
Top	        PAA Count	                                 1/17/25
Top, breadth, STTrigger Security			
Top,            Simple Top			                 12/4/24
Top	        Primary-Tech Divergence			          8/23/24
Bottom	        Extreme PAMA low		 Medium	          4/10/25
				
Leverage, Macro	Margin Debt to GDP		 Bull	          9/1/22

Mechanically, I am out of US stocks.
My GTAA board is below. The top 4 "investable" asset classes are EAFE, EM, VNQI and total Bond. I will be reinvesting some cash into those classes in the upcoming week to a 2 week maximum of 20% total. I'm 50% invested in fixed income CEFs.

Asset Class 	33W	To MA	Rank	RK TRND
For. Developed	IN	1.031	1	WARN
For. Dev. SC	IN	1.012	3	UP
Foreign Real 	IN	1.050	2	UP
Total Bond	IN	1.02	4	UP