Subject: Re: WHY does Israel have to wait for
As you say, "no smoking gun either way". So I tend to go with the accounts of the people who were there.

Well, the person who gave the order wasn't there. And I would track it up from the observations to the person who gave the order back down to the pilot launching the missile. Most articles do not mention who gave the order, and as the historian asks - Why? You are misusing Occam's razor - the simplest answer is that mistakes were made. Then there is Hanlon's razor - Never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity. So Hanlon tells us not to leap to think it was deliberate, which would be malicious. It will be deliberate at some point, but Remember the Maine!