Subject: Signals: Compression & Correlation
In looking at my weekly-updated timing signals, a couple of insights stand out:
- in trend (absolute), all but 2 of the asset classes tracked - including fixed income classes - are within a 1 to 1.2% range relative to their 50D moving averages: they're all 5 to 6.2% above. The notable exception is US real estate at 16.8% above its 50D. This is the opposite of dispersion; it's high correlation.

- up until the late July-August mini-tantrum (the first of a potential double top forming), US large cap equity classes were the strongest. That's changed; the money flow has partially redirected into US real estate (with the anticipation of decreasing interest rates a factor). Near term, it could be a small bubble about to pop or it could be a start of longer-term trend; who knows. 17% above a 50DMA certainly doesn't seem sustainable for too long, so I'll be watching that.

FC