Subject: Re: ADP
Yes, their business is performing at expectations, so its really just a matter of if you believe multiples will return to previous levels.. and even if they don't the downside seems very limited.

The 5Y avg PE multiple is 27x, the 10Y is 29x. If they are capable of earning $11.00 / share this year the math seems pretty clear, with an upside in the $275-$300 range. After the earnings release its trading up above $210, which is already a 10% bump from the low it hit a few weeks ago ($188). My cost basis is $195 and I feel comfortable with the position.


tecmo
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