Subject: Re: Trade deal with UK reached
“Painful” vote? It’s a budget bill. Barasso says they’re not that far off (between the House and Senate).

And go out on what limb?

How much to trim Medicaid. How much to shift SNAP and Medicaid obligations onto the states. Whether to raise SALT caps. Whether to reduce the tax cuts or make them temporary.

Have you not been following? There is still a significant amount of disagreement in the House about how to get to the spending cuts that the budget hawks have insisted on, and how to square that with the measure that increase the deficit (higher military spending, higher ICE/border spending, SALT expansion, all Trump's tax-free promises).

Moderates are terrified to take a hard vote to cut federal spending on Medicaid and SNAP that will end up being thrown out when it goes to the Senate (who isn't having any of that). Budget hawks are refusing to take a vote that wouldn't cut that spending, insisting that it be part of the deal. Etc.

Trump's going to have to wade in here and force nearly all those people to take a vote they don't want to take. Which will be much harder for him to do if his favorability is underwater and we're in recession and those Congressbeings don't see a clear path out of the tariff fighting.