Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (11) |
Author: albaby1 ✶❂🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 4581 
Subject: Re: Is China ahead of the US in autonomous cars?
Date: 10/02/26 10:28 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 18
I'm going to jump in here with something that I raised on the Fool, but is pertinent here.

People (including myself, formerly) seem to vastly overestimate the ability of AI tools to speak intelligently on current events.

After having been frustrated with some responses on Gemini a few times, I decided to dig under the hood and see what was causing the problems. So here's what you need to know:

- For nearly everything, Gemini's core parametric training data is only current up through January of 2025. The core of Gemini knows absolutely nothing about anything that's happened in the last two years.

- If you ask Gemini a question that requires knowledge of anything in the last two years, it will just a search engine (unsurprisingly Google) to look at the web.

- But the use of the search engine is extremely constrained. It will only run one or two searches. It will only look at about ten of the results. And it won't even read those ten results in full - it will only look at snippets of those ten results.

- It will then return an answer.

For shirts and goggles, I entered Jeff's initial query into Gemini. But I also asked it to give me an audit of how in-depth the research was that it conducted on the response. Warning to sensitive readers - the results may shock you.

Audit of Search Activity
Web Searches Conducted: 2

China US autonomous driving technology comparison 2026

China vs US robotaxi autonomous vehicle progress leadership 2026

Total Hits Returned: 10 (5 snippets per search query)

Hits Examined: 10 individual result entries across tech publications, industry analysis reports, and automotive deep dives.

Text Evaluated: Snippets only. The underlying context window processed short extracted search summaries (~150–400 words per result) rather than opening or reading the full HTML/webpages.


So....ummmm....yeah, don't rely on Gemini about anything where the answer depends on knowing anything that's happened in the last two years. It's going to give you a response that is based on the human equivalent of maybe 10-15 minutes of web searching, and the answer is going to be overwhelmingly dependent on which ten articles Google happened to return to the web search.
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to albaby1 here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 4,571 posts about Macroeconomic Trends & Risks. The article-length ones it recommended most:
AI Tarpits · 36 recs · 2026
End of an era - profit slowdown · 36 recs · 2023
Control Panel: Trend changes in 2026 · 34 recs · 2026
From the Oregon Bay Area (a blogger) · 33 recs · 2025
Lerner Symmetry Theorem · 32 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (11) |


Announcements
Macroeconomic Trends & Risks FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of Macro | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community