No. of Recommendations: 10
Just speculating, but perhaps it could be useful to find out what % of the time historically (maybe weighted to the more recent past) Berkshire has gone on to make buy-out offers after reaching ownership of x% of shares on the open market, then compare that to where OXY ownership currently stands.
Yes, exactly!
Perhaps there is something on the intertubes that summarizes Berkshire takeovers, and we could look at the most recent ones.
I'll start building, with public company acquisitions that come to mind:
1995: GEICO (Berkshire already owned about half, for many years I believe; so it sort of counts as a takeover, with 50% being the point of no return)
2009: BNSF (22.6% stake prior to offer; 31.5% premium; subsequent divestment of other rail stakes)
2013: Heinz (bought 50%, along with his Brazilian friends, after owning a smaller but significant stake: sort of counts as a takeover, I'd say)
2014: Duracell (this was just a branch of P&G, so I don't think it helps us)
2015: Precision Castparts (3% stake prior to the offer; 21% premium)
These are all potential 'numerator' cases, where the takeover happened. The 'denominators' would be these, plus the cases where Berkshire built up a significant stake, but DIDN'T end up making an offer. These would maybe include, off the top of my head:
American Express: bought 5% in the 60s, with the salad oil crisis, has been around 20% recently, probably doesn't count since I don't think Berkshire is allowed to take over a bank, or if it did, it would be regulated as a bank, which it doesn't want)
Coca-Cola: roughly 10%, no movement for years
USG: bought around 2000, got up to a 30% stake, never bought (opposed a German takeover in 2018 and lost; this is maybe a special case because any rational shareholder would have been afraid of the asbestos liabilities and wanted to keep it at arm's length; however, it IS the first example of a 20%+ stake that didn't get eventually bought)
Moody's (in 2007, Berkshire owned 19% of shares, but cut way back after the financial crisis, so this would be a case where he stopped before 20% and never pulled the trigger)
P&G (I don't think Berkshire ever owned more than about 3-4%)
USG Corp: Berkshire once had a big stake, 17% in 2007, but never bought. Making that 20% line look important.
Other banks: Bank of America, Bank of NY Mellon, US Bancorp, others maybe
Perhaps others could add to this list.
DTB
