It's not always quantity. It's quality, and raw firepower. Numerically, the German navy was no match for the British navy. But they spanked them repeatedly because their ships were better with more firepower.

China has 3 carriers. We have 11 (supercarriers), plus supporting vessels. We don't need to concentrate all of them around Taiwan to be sure that China couldn't invade. They may have a million man army, but they can't get them across that 100 mile straight that easily. They just don't have that many amphibious warships to transport enough troops and materiel if they meet any significant resistance (i.e. they'd lose a lot of them before they crossed that 100 miles). If we didn't intervene, they may have enough troop ships. But only if we didn't intervene.

Further, the Philippines is inviting us to station missiles and troops in the Philippines again. We are helping them expand Subic, and it appears we may be invited back.

The Aussies are on our side, as is Japan and Britain. A German warship recently made port in the Philippines. So it's not just us.

Plus, China would have to consider that attacking us would invoke the NATO treaty, and they'll be fighting all of Europe (though realistically, only the British, French, and Germans have navies for more than coastal operations).

I do agree that if the convict wins next month, it's probably game-over for Taiwan. He won't lift a finger to help them. He doesn't care what goes on over there as long as Ivanka's clothing line gets shipped out from the sweatshops unimpeded.

Probably game-over for the Philippines as well. There will be no support for resisting the Chinese taking the Spratleys, or anything else they want. The Philippine navy and coast guard just isn't up for that kind of confrontation on their own, even with Aussie and Japanese assistance.