Post #27535 by albaby1 on the Berkshire Hathaway board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤

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First hurricane in recorded history to approach Tampa directly from the west. Lots of storm surge with this one, even if it is downgraded before it hits.

Worth noting how much can depend on a few miles of shift in where landfall hits.

Right now, Tampa Bay is kind of in the center of the forecast track. If the center hits 10-20 miles north of Tampa Bay, it's catastrophic - all that wind will push massive amounts of storm surge into the bay.

But if it moves 10-20 miles south of Tampa Bay, the wind is coming from the other direction (hurricanes are always counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere). Now, all the wind is pushing water out of Tampa Bay. Depending on the vagaries of the wind patterns, the water level might even fall.

The margin of error on our forecast track this far out is well over a hundred miles. So TB is on a knife-edge between a bad storm and a catastrophic storm.

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