so it's established most polls are bad, and those quasi-political are likely ridiculous.
easing back from polling for election prediction, the results from harris-guardian are broadly disturbing :

* 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.

* 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.

* 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.


the weird part here is not that conservatives wrongly believe trump actually did better, but that progressives polled only ~10-20% rates of lower ignorance.
if this does have an impact on voting outcomes, it would probably represent history's biggest gap in prosperity for a losing incumbent.

on the other hand, voters can retrospectively claim they were more concerned about social\geopolitical issues where likely even more ignorant.

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