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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21944 
Subject: Re: Div stocks
Date: 01/26/24 11:33 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 9
What if the dividend is 8% and the stock price has the potential to more than double?

You'd miss out! On that one.

But the "shotgun" approach is a game of statistics.

As you note, sometimes a yield is high simply because the stock is oversold, so the price rebounds. It's not that rare.
But on average across all US stocks with yields that high, that's not the case. Somewhat more often it's because the dividend is going to get cut and the forward total return will be poor.

If every quarter you built an equally weighted portfolio of all the stocks covered by Value Line with an indicated yield over 8%, you would not do well.
Total return including dividends since summer 2007 of -9.5% (total, not annualized)
Versus S&P +334.6%
(and, just for completeness, a portfolio of all those dividend payers paying less than 8%, +312%)

So the conclusion, and the reason for my suggestion:
In the very specific situation that you know nothing else about a company besides its dividend yield, you want to skip those over (say) 8%.
Maybe you prefer a cutoff of maximum 7% of 11% or whatever, but there is definitely a level beyond which you'd better have some other good reason to want to own it.

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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