When reading posts, there are yellow stars against the names of the most respected Shrewds. The number of points in the star, starting at 3, represents the Shrewd'm-Star rating. This number is the average recommendation that the author received over the last 12 months.
- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
No. of Recommendations: 10
OK, I’m gonna go out on a very thin limb here and predict a massive Christmas. I acknowledge this is somewhat akin to reading tea leaves or goat entrails, but here you have it.
I have ordered a number of things online lately (well, not just lately, but you know what I mean) and maybe half of them are being delivered timely. Now your first reaction might be “OK, not enough delivery people” but that’s not the issue.
I ordered some solar panels from California 10 days ago. The FedEx tracking shows “a label has been created”. I have done this multiple times over the past couple years and it usually takes a day between “label created” and “we’ve got your package.”
I ordered a shop stool from WalMart.com, and (yes) it hasn’t been shipped yet. That was about 5 days ago.
I ordered some solar cables from Amazon, said to be “in stock” and now, oops, “We’re sorry for the delay and we’ll let you know when they’re on the way”
I expect this sort of thing from Temu, which has improved lately, but often you can just tell they’re waiting for the ship to arrive, but not from Amazon, WalMart, or RichSolar. Not from the “Christmas Gift Box” vendors we’ve used in the past, and who are struggling to keep up now.
I’m waiting for something from eBay which had “only 2 left”, and now the delivery is pushed to January. (Another waiting for the boat, I suppose.)
Anyway, people are spending - and spending - and spending. Me too.
Happy Christmas ahead, economy wise, I’m thinking.
No. of Recommendations: 1
OK, I’m gonna go out on a very thin limb here and predict a massive Christmas.
I tend to agree. Sadly (had to pick something up at the Apple store), I was at the mall once over the last two weeks and even then it was crowded. And a few family members have been to the mall this week and reported crowds (can't judge by parking lots anymore because since an anchor store closed, there is more than adequate parking, even on Christmas Eve.
However, in order for the discussion to make any sense, we have to define "massive". "They" are expecting a flat-ish Christmas selling season, maybe flat or down 1 or up 1 percent from last year. I agree with you and think it'll be more like up 3, 4, or even 5 or more percent. What is your definition of "massive"?
Oh, and on Black Friday, I bought a new toilet lever for $7.99 ... universal fit kind ... ended up returning it a few days later ... because it didn't fit. I guess "universal" doesn't include my Toto model.
No. of Recommendations: 2
more impactful:
all sensible biz pulling purchases fwd, especially imports, ahead of any inane tariffs.
americans have jobs and love to spend, despite egg\gas\milk bitching in the media.
expect economy to continue biden boom well in q2 2025.
crypto remains a scam.
No. of Recommendations: 1
However, in order for the discussion to make any sense, we have to define "massive". "They" are expecting a flat-ish Christmas selling season, maybe flat or down 1 or up 1 percent from last year. I agree with you and think it'll be more like up 3, 4, or even 5 or more percent. What is your definition of "massive"?
Yeah, I don’t mean “up 30%” which would be absurd, given the base. But given the dour predictions, I’d say “a happy Christmas”, meaning a boost of 3%, maybe a bit more.
Oh, and I forgot two other things I’ve ordered which are also “running late”. And these are from a variety of vendors, so it’s not just Amazon that’s stressed.
No. of Recommendations: 0
While it is possible that orders are up, it may be that the delivery companies including Amazon didn't increase their temporary hiring this season like they have done in the past.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I’m waiting for something from eBay which had “only 2 left”, and now the delivery is pushed to January. (Another waiting for the boat, I suppose.)
Anyway, people are spending - and spending - and spending. or.... what choice do we have???
"U.S. malls, large and small, numbered 25,000 in 1986.
An average of 1,170 shopping malls closed every year between 2017 and 2022.
..... some sources project that by 2032, there may be as few as 150 malls still in operation.
https://capitaloneshopping.com/research/mall-closu...
No. of Recommendations: 1
Oh, and I forgot two other things I’ve ordered which are also “running late”.
Ah, that reminds me that I bought something from Costco a few days ago and earlier today I received a "running late" email from them.
No. of Recommendations: 5
While it is possible that orders are up, it may be that the delivery companies including Amazon didn't increase their temporary hiring this season like they have done in the past. Anything is possible, I suppose, but I’m not gonna think that’s it. Since Amazon opened two distribution centers here, each about 15 miles from me (and 30 from each other) I have seen more Amazon vans running up and down the street than ever.
More than that, a few weeks ago I had to rent a truck to pull our boat from the river for the winter, and while at the rental place two guys were trying to rent a work van. “Don’t have any, won’t have any for 6 months” the guy at the counter said. Since Amazon opened up delivery to independent contractors they’re fresh out and have a months-long waiting list. (The Enterprising, uh, Enterprise employee tried to talk them into a large box truck, but they weren’t having it. There weren’t any work vans up the street at Budget either.)
Additionally we are suddenly being served by a plethora of other “last mile” deliverers. In addition to the usual suspects (USPS, UPS, FedEx) there is now Amazon (of course) and a bunch of new delivery services coming online:
https://explodingtopics.com/blog/delivery-startupsAnd they’re all showing explosive growth. Not to mention DoorDash, UberEats, and similar.
No, I think the logjam is upstream: too little inventory coming too slowly off the boats and trains before getting to the warehouses. Just my guess, of course, I have no insight into this entire part of the industry.
No. of Recommendations: 2
More than that, a few weeks ago I had to rent a truck to pull our boat from the river for the winter, and while at the rental place two guys were trying to rent a work van. “Don’t have any, won’t have any for 6 months” the guy at the counter said. Since Amazon opened up delivery to independent contractors they’re fresh out and have a months-long waiting list. (The Enterprising, uh, Enterprise employee tried to talk them into a large box truck, but they weren’t having it. There weren’t any work vans up the street at Budget either.)
Now we know how Amazon staffed up for the holiday delivery rush. They didn't. Instead they are hiring independent contractors with rented vans to do it.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Something's going on.
Placed an order 11 Dec with delivery set for today, 13 Dec.
Item shipped yesterday. This evening, as I watched the Amazon truck drive
past my house I received an update - Delayed in transit with expected
delivery now *19 Dec*.
So we've gone from 2-day delivery to an additional 6 days *after* it shipped.
No. of Recommendations: 0
"So we've gone from 2-day delivery to an additional 6 days *after* it shipped."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
And another item shipped with scheduled delivery for
today and this evening they're like "yeah... Nah!"
They just added another 2 days.
