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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: lizgdal   😊 😞
Number: of 3953 
Subject: Re: Timing indicators
Date: 04/17/2025 6:29 PM
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In the five US recessions since 1980, on average stock market valuations have gone from 16 to 11 times forward earnings, always ending no higher than 14x.

A search turns up several charts of S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio. The longer term trends look more significant. For example:

S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio
increases to peak of 24 around 19991231
decreases to trough of 10 around 20081001
increases to peak of 22 around 20201231
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/ins...


GTR1 can calculate a S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio. This shows a similar curve with peaks in 1999 and 2021, and a trough in 2008:

  Date    PE
19991230 25 peak
20081121 9 trough
20210111 23 peak


PE did not change much during the 3 recent recessions, but Forward Earnings Estimates did:

month   Earnings  MktCap   PE    Recession             Dates
200102 0.56 11.07 19.9 Early 2000s March 2001 – November 2001
200112 0.47 10.02 21.1
change -15% -9% 6%

200711 0.95 13.25 14.0 Great December 2007 – June 2009
200907 0.66 8.40 12.6
change -30% -37% -10%

202001 1.54 28.32 18.3 COVID-19 February 2020 – April 2020
202005 1.37 25.10 18.4
change -11% -11% 0%



Year end values:

  Date    [sumE]  [sumMC]  [EY]  PE  decreasedE  decreasedMC
20250414 2.66 47.03 5.7% 18 --- TRUE
20241231 2.44 52.03 4.7% 21 --- ---
20231229 2.15 41.91 5.1% 19 --- ---
20221230 2.01 33.61 6.0% 17 --- TRUE
20211231 1.97 42.39 4.7% 21 --- ---
20201231 1.47 32.99 4.4% 22 TRUE ---
20191231 1.53 27.82 5.5% 18 --- ---
20181231 1.52 21.64 7.0% 14 --- TRUE
20171229 1.29 23.78 5.4% 18 --- ---
20161230 1.19 20.17 5.9% 17 --- ---
20151231 1.16 18.95 6.1% 16 TRUE TRUE
20141231 1.17 19.09 6.1% 16 --- ---
20131231 1.12 17.11 6.6% 15 --- ---
20121231 1.06 13.02 8.1% 12 --- ---
20111230 1.01 11.84 8.6% 12 --- ---
20101231 0.90 11.65 7.7% 13 --- ---
20091231 0.71 10.33 6.9% 14 --- ---
20081231 0.69 7.87 8.8% 11 TRUE TRUE
20071231 0.94 13.41 7.0% 14 --- ---
20061229 0.88 13.05 6.7% 15 --- ---
20051230 0.80 11.54 6.9% 14 --- ---
20041231 0.69 11.19 6.1% 16 --- ---
20031231 0.58 10.22 5.6% 18 --- ---
20021231 0.50 7.72 6.5% 15 --- TRUE
20011231 0.49 10.52 4.7% 21 TRUE TRUE
20001229 0.52 11.00 4.7% 21 --- TRUE
19991231 0.47 11.48 4.1% 25 --- ---
19981231 0.42 9.51 4.4% 23 --- ---
19971231 0.38 7.09 5.4% 19 --- ---


https://gtr1.net/2013/?~SP500_PEforward:h1::sp500....
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