Prices below 1.25 price to book value have occurred at least four times in the last ten years. 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022. Haven’t seen it since then. Maybe we’re due.

I don't think we will see P/B < 1.25 unless there is an overall recession/ broader stock market decline. It was lower in the 2010s because buybacks were mostly off the table back then. Now a regular buyback below intrinsic value is pretty much the base case, and thus P/B should be higher going forward. So 2016, 2018, and 2020 were pre-large buyback years. And 2022 was a significant down year for stock market.
The above is just my guess.>>>>

Believe in this sentiment. Just wanted to chime in on the “base case” mentioned above. Buffett has often been asked about the buyback regime and one particular answer stuck with me. “ We’re not looking to prop up the stock price, or influence it in any way. That said, with the buyback intention, we’re effectively an incremental buyer in the market and that does influence the price.”

The big difference between the old Sheriff and the new one in Omaha is one of scale and capital allocation chutzpah.

For so many reasons, most notably to keep from screwing up while firing the elephant gun, Greg’s sight is trained on the elephant roaming around Omaha. With an estimated half a trillion to allocate over the coming decade, Greg’s scale of buybacks is expected to be much larger. That incremental buyer thing is going to get bigger as the open market float keeps declining.

I’d suppose Buffett’s alter ego made him eye other pachyderms. “I can see, Charlie can hear”. He could see well. 😉