No. of Recommendations: 3
Jim,
Thanks for your post. I started buying OXY in June 2023, the first of 8 tax lots with the Aug 21, 2024 lot being my latest. My combined basis is $56.64. I've watched its sedate serpentine march more as a spectator with an initial 5 year hold period before deciding if I want to be in it beyond. I was drawing from a cash position in a retirement account, so the buying decision was simplified and my timetable allows for patience.
There has been such a value puzzle in quite a bit of other stuff and I always figure by the time I know some market "insight", it will have been 9 months known, digested and traded on. So yes, I have shamelessly used WEB's assessment of fair value with a margin of safety to enter. I also feel like WEB's insight is helped by his relationship and history with CVX, who could one day become a consolidator.
OXY also felt like it offered some hedge on inflation for me, though that analysis was "crude" at best. I don't think of myself as someone who can pick a team in the 2 or 3 inning and bet with conviction they'll win the game.
That seems to translate to stock timing as well. Also, I don't know what will become of their CO2 capture venture, but I like the way Vickie is willing to give the idea every chance to succeed as much as her laser focus on managing debt. She also seems to be agile and successful finding prospects to incrementally upgrade their O&G assets. There's an absence of fog when they report earnings. That gumbo of (thought?)has been marinating a while.
This position doesn't necessarily square well with my politics, but I don't believe the general public has an appreciation for how much inertia the O&G industry has in this economy and that lots of earnings are out there in a transition that might unfold over the next 20-30 years. I expect a future with some diversified energy mix.
Best wishes,
Dan
