No. of Recommendations: 16
Riddle me this batman, why is Trump becoming more and more popular each and every day and with every indictment?
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It is crucial to remind everyone following the clown circus that is our political process that numbers in this climate mean nothing without context. Every claimed fact or actual fact has to be carefully dissected into constituent parts to understand its true meaning.
Is Trump becoming more popular every day?
With "Republicans", yes. But that doesn't reflect the reality people think it does. As I've commented frequently, every number reflecting every aspect of how we talk about politics is changing like sand under our feet. If you assume American voters are in perpetuity divided 45/45/10 between Democrats, Republicans and Indepdendents (essentially any other faction left powerless because of America's corrupt, distorted, dysfunctional two-party system), then hearing "Trump is more popular among Republicans" is horrifying. If you assume the Republican share of the electorate is fixed at 45%, then Trump becoming more popular with Republicans means the absolute number of people who support him is going up.
That is NOT what is happening. Trump is becoming MORE popular within a SHRINKING population of people willing to publicly identify as Republican. It is POSSIBLE that people are unwilling to IDENTIFY as Republican due to concerns about their own reputation but still silently support Trump-ish thinking and will VOTE for Trump-like candidates. However, because they won't IDENTIFY as Republicans, proving such a theory is as difficult as proving my theory above that an appreciable number of people are LEAVING the Republican Party and won't vote for extremist candidates.
It is also crucial to understand how Trump is leveraging any such popularity he is attracting through his nationwide tour of the civil and criminal justice system. Trump netted over $35 million dollars in the second quarter of 2023 including something like $6.6 million being donated after the first indictment in Manhattan. He raised about $34 million in the first quarter. These numbers may sound impressive but they actually reflect critical problems. First, Trump spent $21 million in funds from his political action committee on legal fees in the first half of 2023. That's $21 million of $69 million raised -- that we know of. Those legal fees will only go up as Trump not only (presumably) continues paying his own lawyers but paying for lawyers of those he hopes will remain in his camp and stick to his storyline to keep him out of jail. That's a precarious balance because if he ever skips a payment and that lawyer quits or decides to actually serve their client as they are professionally obligated, his legal exposure will skyrocket.
The more important problem is that Trump's fundraising is bleeding cash out of the Republican voter base into his coffers and it is an absolute metaphysical certitude that money under Trump's control will ONLY be spent on things that directly benefit or protect Donald Trump. Every dollar that goes to Trump is a dollar that becomes unavailable to donate to any other Republican candidate at any level of government. Any remaining "traditional" Republicans in the party -- which I would guess to be about 30% of the politicians and voters still willing to identify as R -- have to realize that failure to eject Trump from the party and its cash flow puts them on the same branch of the tree that could collapse if the legal system properly addresses the existential crimes he has committed.
The shifting interpretation of numbers about politics are equally important for those outside the MAGA camp to understand. We cannot get overly discouraged every time simplistic headlines like "Trump polls rise in Republican primary after indictment" are pushed in the media. Such headlines have to be carefully parsed to ensure we don't give up and fail to show up on polling day. The voter base DOES exist out there to stop this madness but a perpetual stream of misleading headlines stemming from inept / corrupt journalists can generate enough apathy to keep the base home and let a shrinking minority exert undue influence on the country.
We have to play the entire chessboard and stop fixating on the would-be king.
WTH
