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Nice to see some BRK board regulars here.

I assumed the reason there was little talk about BRK here was because everyone knew about it and was invested in it.

I have something like 85% of net worth in BRK and am always looking for other options but nothing much measures up. I keep a chunk in QQQE and have watched Markel do very average once it ramped up from the low price I got in at.

I'm looking (like everyone else) for anything that will beat the S&P index and is safer. It seems the S&P index has been "too high" for a long time.

I'm currently shoring up the fixed income end of my portfolio with laddered Treasuries.

All thoughts welcomed.

A wave to Tex and Goofy, two posters I've been reading for decades now and have nothing but the highest respect for. When they post, listen!

SD

I still like Apple. My largest holding, by far, in my equities slice of the portfolio - it outran Berkshire (#2) probably a decade ago. I think it is 16% of my overall holdings - that wasn't so much a decision as what buying when Steve Jobs was still alive did, over time, with the compounding we've seen in the post-iPhone era. Majority is still indices, and the fixed income is a pretty fat ladder of T-bills and annuities, just to sort of complete the picture.

The ecosystem is astoundingly sticky, as noted by WEB and others.

They manage to simply maintain a strategic focus on excellence in execution, integration, and do so with strong margins. They give a fig about being first in, but rather want to be best in class.

I first used their products in 1982 (I still have a printout). I've used Windows at various times, mostly in the '90s and '00s, but about 20 years ago got my first modern OSX Mac mini and it would take an extraordinary change (negative at Apple, gangbusters amazing at Microsoft) to flip me back. I lost count of how many Apple devices are in my house - they're used by everyone, for 100% of their work, professional and personal.

I gave Android a solid shake. Perfectly fine and functional tablet, used it for months. But simply not as good. I'm not a rabid fanboy; I'm an empirical engineer who overanalyzes/measures things to a fault. I put down the Samsung tablet and it is in a drawer, collecting dust now, and I'm glad to be back to the iPad.

If I go to the mall, the foot traffic in the Apple Store is greater, numerically, by an order of magnitude than any other similar sized store. I dare say they have a greater head count than Macy's at times.

Their 10ks and 10qs show no signs of distress or concerns. Their leadership is top flight.

I still like Apple. My largest holding

I have similar thoughts. And Apple is, by far, my largest holding (much larger than 16%, even after some stock sales at the end of last year) at this point after 2+ decades of owning it.

I first used their products in 1982 (I still have a printout). I've used Windows at various times, mostly in the '90s and '00s, but about 20 years ago got my first modern OSX Mac mini and it would take an extraordinary change (negative at Apple, gangbusters amazing at Microsoft) to flip me back. I lost count of how many Apple devices are in my house - they're used by everyone, for 100% of their work, professional and personal.

My first use of an Apple product was the iPhone early on. Probably 2008 or 2009, it was an iPhone 3g. It was far better than any other cellphone at the time, and I had been using blackberry for more than a decade AND I was developing similar products at one of my employers in the blackberry years. My first mac was in 2012, a Macbook pro with the new high quality display (I think their marketing term was "retina display"). I'm also an engineer, and thus much more empirical than fanboy. I also use PC on a regular basis, or at least I did use them until I retired a few years ago. And I still use Android on a regular basis, some of the phones I use for games are android phones.

When I first got cellphones for all my kids, the carrier sent us 5 windows phones. Over a period of months (literally MONTHS) they couldn't get them to work properly. I worked with the engineers at the carrier for many hours to try different things, and they could not get those phones to function properly. There were intractable bugs in the phone (I had other phones at the time that could be tried side by side during all this testing). Finally they gave up, took back the 5 windows phones and sent us 5 android phones (LG brand) instead. Those worked fine for a while, but then my kids caught the iPhone bug and all wanted iPhones. I then upgraded each of them to various used iPhones, pretty much from eldest to youngest over about 2 years. Now they will only use iPhone. For a while, when they were still teens, if they misbehaved, a joking threat that we would use as parents, was to tell them that we will switch them to Android if they don't improve their behavior. And at this point, 3 out of 5 kids choose to use a macbook and will only use a PC when forced to for work, and the remaining 2 chose to use only a PC laptop.

At this point, we have tens of Apple devices here. Let's see, 8 iPhones in regular use, probably 6+ old iPhones used for various games and testing stuff, still have 5 iPod touch in a box but those aren't in use anymore, 4 watches, 4 macbook air/pro in regular use, 3 older macbooks of various types, 6 iPads of various vintages, one Apple TV device, so far 12 airtags, probably 9 of which are in use, and 3 are still in the box until someone needs them for a new piece of luggage/etc. And there are probably some others that I've forgotten. Oh yes, a whole bunch of assorted earpods and airpods. My latest airpod is the pro 2 and I've set them up for hearing assistance as well, but I don't wear them on a regular basis, I mainly use them while at the gym on the elliptical or while watching video sometimes (I prefer my Bose over-the-ear headphones for watching video at home).

Their 10ks and 10qs show no signs of distress or concerns. Their leadership is top flight.

This is indeed true. However, there are some things that don't appear in the 10k or 10q. The main thing that doesn't appear, or at least doesn't appear in any prominent fashion, is valuation. If you look at a PE chart of Apple, you will see that it has trended up over the last decade, and you will see that it is at/near a high, and you will see that it has been there for a while now. That means that the stock price is growing faster, sometimes way faster, than earnings are growing. Obviously that can't keep up forever. So that is something that must be taken into account investing-wise.

Here's a link to such a chart - https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/app...

If you look at a PE chart of Apple, you will see that it has trended up over the last decade, and you will see that it is at/near a high, and you will see that it has been there for a while now. That means that the stock price is growing faster, sometimes way faster, than earnings are growing. Obviously that can't keep up forever.

Indeed. And it's why I'm funding Year 1 of retirement with it! If it stays at nice levels, it might fund Year 2 through X. If it tanks, I might sell something else or not roll the T-bill maturing next January and live off that.

I'm looking (like everyone else) for anything that will beat the S&P index and is safer. It seems the S&P index has been "too high" for a long time.

Not that anybody cares, but I would pick Alphabet over Apple at this juncture. Different strokes. The combination of Apple's realistic growth prospects, valuation, and China risk exposure leave me cool. I would prefer taking the LLM risk to Google keyword search, which I think is a pinch overblown: slowing, not existential.

Looking further afield, try reading about Investor AB. A Sweden-based company, essentially a publicly listed *old* family office, that has some wholly owned subsidiaries with unusually good economic characteristics, and also a public equity portfolio with a good history. Cash flow from those operations is reinvested in acquiring new wholly owned units. Perhaps best valued as book book of the listed items plus a multiple of smoothed earnings on the subs, or as an overall multiple of look-through earnings. Many people use price to book. Seems to be stuffed with conservative, honest management. They don't seem to have Russian operations. Does any of that sound familiar?

They are a bit more international in their equity portfolio, but the operating businesses tend to be closer to home where they know and understand the operating landscape.

Stock returns (in kronor) 15.4%/year in the last 20 years. Includes a modest dividend.

There is a blogger who has very good write-ups about them so you can understand what they're about.
Jan 2024 https://outsiderscorner.substack.com/p/investor-ab...
Oct 2024, "Part II" https://outsiderscorner.substack.com/p/investor-ab...
Feb 2025, review of 2024 results https://outsiderscorner.substack.com/p/investor-ab...

Jim

I have also been following Investor AB for a few months and I like the long-term orientation of the company and of course the results of the last decades.
If I had a better idea of the current valuation, I would be happy to increase my small entry position significantly if the opportunity arose.

They regularly publish the adjusted net asset value per share, which can be used as a guide: in the last 10 years the P/adjNAV has been between 0.5 and 1.2 with an upward trend and is currently at 0.92.
If it were below 0.85, I would definitely increase my position. However, because the adjNAV also includes the market prices of the investments, it should be treated with caution.

A valuation based on look-through earnings would certainly be better, but that would be a lot of work, which I shy away from.

On the theme of Swedish securities....

Svenska Handelsbanken AB is a bank that Jim has brought up in the past as a conservatively run, company that might make a safe long
term holding

I dont follow it regularly, but just took a quick look:

Currently trading at a PE of 9.4, P/B 1.4 (somewhat higher than usual)and a dividend yield of 8%...up 55% over the past 12 mo?!

Does anyone have a current opinion?

and a dividend yield of 8%...up 55% over the past 12 mo?!

Remember that for most companies outside the US, dividends are generally quite variable based on business conditions, and a dividend cut is not considered a sign of anything in particular. The disproportionate meaning inferred from steadily increasing dividends is a peculiarly North American thing.

It has been a good year, so the dividend is high. The current period dividend is 13 SEK, made up of 6.50 in regular dividends and 6.50 in special dividend, 10.3% yield on the current price. But there is no certainty about what the next one will be. Here is the history
https://www.handelsbanken.com/en/investor-relation...

The range is quite broad, including no dividend at all in fiscal 2019 / calendar 2020. (the Swedish government requested that banks not pay one because of Covid). Six year average is 6.65 or 7.74% on the current price of SEK 126.15. Ignoring the dry year, four year average is SEK 8.60 or 6.82% yield on the current price.

I don't own any. My main hesitation is that buying bank stocks is, in general, a bad move. Unless you are a real expert, which I'm not.
A recent comment of mine to that effect https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=942876367

That being said, if you're going to buy into a bank anywhere, it really does seem that this one would not be among the riskier choices.
Preposterous capital ratios compared to most banks, and still managing a very solid double digit ROE. In the 13-14% range in the last couple of years after a gently rising trend post Covid, and usually in the 9.5-14% range over the last decade. A high ROE is not so hard when you're overleveraged, but a conservative balance sheet would normally be accompanied by lower returns on the capital in hand.

Jim

Does anyone know if IVSFX (class A shares) is the correct symbol for Investor AB ?
I see a share price of 29.25 and at Fidelity it just says Investor Class A but the news links pointing to 13Fs turn out to be news on Investor AB.
Just wanting to be sure what I'm looking at.

Thanks.
Rich

Does anyone know if IVSFX (class A shares) is the correct symbol for Investor AB ?

Generally speaking you'd be buying the B shares.
The A shares are the ones with higher voting rights that exist for the founding family, and they aren't as liquid. Both have the same economic interest.

It's much like same answer for Berkshire A and B shares, but without the big difference in share price.

I can't really comment on the US pink sheets, as I am interested in the shares listed in Stockholm, INVE-B.ST
But I think the one you'd be looking at is IVSBF.

As for liquidity: don't worry about low volume per se. (same with any odd ETF or secondary listing). Rather, check the bid/ask gap during the few hours that both US and European markets are open. If the bid/ask gap is small, it doesn't matter much what the volume is. The arbitrageurs might be making sure you're getting a good deal.

Jim

Thanks, Jim. Its always nice to get your perspective.

Along those lines, and keeping with the Ideas beyond BRK, beyond US theme, I am a long time holder of Alimentation Couche Tard (ATD)and noted that you recently started a position

Its having a rare bad year - down 15% YTD and 12% over the past 12 mo

On a technical basis it is approaching moving average levels that it has only touched a couple of times in the past 10 years and has always held / bounced from. I'm leaning towards using this as an opportunity to add to my position.

Ive mainly been attributing the weak performance to the 7-11 takeover attempt, but also saw that the last q performance was pretty weak. As was last year.

Wondering if you or anyone else have an updated opinion on the business - a combination of gas stations, convenience stores.

At one point a few years ago the worry was that EVs were going to eat into their earnings as people wouldnt need gas...Im assuming thats not the cause as EV adoption has slowed somewhat. Management has always proven itself resilient. We arent in a global recession that should drive down consumption. So Im scratching my head a bit and looking for other viewpoints



https://corporate.couche-tard.com/2025-06-25-ALIME...

Quarterly Highlights

Net earnings attributable to shareholders of the Corporation were $439.4 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 compared with $453.0 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. Adjusted net earnings attributable to shareholders of the Corporation1 were approximately $441.0 million compared with $461.0 million for the corresponding quarter of last year, representing a decrease of 4.3%.
Net earnings attributable to shareholders of the Corporation were $0.46 per diluted share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 compared with $0.47 per diluted share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. Adjusted diluted net earnings per share1 were $0.46, representing a decrease of 4.2% from $0.48 for the corresponding quarter of last year.
Total merchandise and service revenues of $4.2 billion, an increase of 2.0%. Same-store merchandise revenues2 decreased by 0.4% in the United States, while it increased by 3.4% in Europe and other regions1, and by 3.5% in Canada.
Merchandise and service gross margin1 decreased by 0.2% in the United States to 33.9%, by 0.6% in Europe and other regions to 38.6%, and by 0.8% in Canada to 34.1%.
Same-store road transportation fuel volumes decreased by 1.9% in the United States, by 0.6% in Europe and other regions, while it increased by 3.7% in Canada.
Road transportation fuel gross margin1 of 43.27¢ per gallon in the United States, an increase of 4.48¢ per gallon, US 9.57¢ per liter in Europe and other regions, an increase of US 1.27¢ per liter, and CA 14.05¢ per liter in Canada, an increase of CA 0.37¢ per liter.

Fiscal Year 2025 Highlights

Net earnings per diluted share of $2.71 compared with $2.82 for fiscal 2024, a decrease of 3.9%, while adjusted diluted net earnings per share1 were $2.71 compared with $2.81 for fiscal 2024, a decrease of 3.6%.
During fiscal 2025, we repurchased 8.7 million shares for an amount of $518.9 million.
Solid pipeline execution with 97 new-to-industry openings, and 20 relocated or reconstructed stores during fiscal 2025. As of April 27, 2025, another 41 stores were under construction and should open in the upcoming quarters.
Increase in the annual dividend declared for fiscal 2025 of 14.3%, from CA 66.50¢ to CA 76.00¢.

I am a long time holder of Alimentation Couche Tard (ATD)and noted that you recently started a pos

Indeed.
I'm planning on adding shortly. I would have done so today, but of course it's Canada Day (Dominion Day to old fogeys), so the markets are closed.

I don't think vehicle electrification will kill their business. Value growth might be slower, but that's hardly fatal. (heck, it's possible that the recent battery developments in China actually work and spread, and five minute "fill ups" remain a thing). A bigger headwind is that they have historically been richly valued, so the recent weakness appears like a good deal only in that context. They're still not conventionally cheap, so things still have to go pretty well for it to be a good deal at these levels.

Peak-to-date rolling EPS is around C$4.20, cyclically adjusted maybe C$4.00 by eyeball. Price is C$67.69.
My rule of thumb is that one will do well with an entry below [10 times average real EPS 5-10 years later]. You'll generally do "OK" buying at 12 times that number. For the 10:1 rule, i.e. for real earnings to average $6.77 5-10 years from now, trend EPS would have to grow at a rate of about inflation + 7.2%/year. Meh, it could happen. The trend has been about nominal 13-14%/year in the last decade. So the trend has to continue, but only at a reduced rate.

My biggest thought is that I continue to kick myself for not piling into Dollarama (DOL.TO) when I studied it years ago, another Canada-based favourite of mine that I have long considered as an alternative.
Here is a 15 year chart:
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=DOL.TO&p=D&st=20...
It's sort of like Costco: never seems conventionally cheap, but those who ignored that and bought anyway have done insanely well.

Jim

Funnily enough I remember asking you about non US alternatives to DG and DLTR years ago, and recall you mentioning Dolorama.

I started a position then and have added to it steadily over a few years. Has been a big winner in my portfolio

Funnily enough I remember asking you about non US alternatives to DG and DLTR years ago, and recall you mentioning Dolorama.
I started a position then and have added to it steadily over a few years. Has been a big winner in my portfolio

I hate you and your horse too : )

Glad it has done well for you. Goodness knows I mention some duds from time time. Fortunately for me, my portfolio allocation does not correlate strongly with the frequency with which I talk about various securities.

Jim

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