Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 3
Everything will be more expensive. One bright spot is your used car should be worth more. Become familiar with buying on Marketplace on FB. Since the plan is to lower the value of the dollar, book all those overseas vacations now. The TRepublican boondoggle is on its way!
SNIP With the tariffs fully in effect, Americans can expect to pay more for groceries, shoes and clothing, household necessities, auto parts, and recreational items. Figure 1 provides illustrative examples of price hikes that Americans could see if Trump’s country-specific tariffs are fully passed through to consumers. For example:
~A toddler clothing set made in Cambodia (49 percent tariff) priced at $24 now could cost $35.76.
~Jeans made in Egypt (10 percent tariff) priced at $39.98 now could cost $43.98.
~A soccer ball made in Pakistan (29 percent tariff) priced at $17.99 now could cost $23.21. About 70 percent of the world’s soccer balls
are made in northeast Pakistan.
~Coffee from Brazil (10 percent tariff), the largest source of coffee consumed in the United States, priced at $8.30 now could cost $9.13.
~A 2025 SUV made in Mexico priced at $31,395 would be subject to the Trump administration’s 25 percent auto tariffs—and could cost $39,244.
Previous modeling by the Budget Lab projected that, as a result of the 25 percent auto tariffs alone, “Motor vehicle prices rise by 13.5% on average, the equivalent of an additional $6,400 to the price of an average new 2024 car.”
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/examples-...Having kids will become too expensive.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Having kids will become too expensive.
****
YEP.
And Club 401K is fine with kids in those countries making all the cheap stuff, while the 401K kids are eating organic baby food.
Big Business Republican Americans- weren't the only ones into profits visa cheap labor and exploitation.
Difference is that now Club 401K admits it.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Remember when "race to the bottom" was all the rage? I guess that was only when working stiffs voted democrat.
We're about to witness a forcible decoupling from China as a manufacturing source...will get interesting.
No. of Recommendations: 11
We're about to witness a forcible decoupling from China as a manufacturing source...will get interesting.
Well, for the U.S. at least.
As we've discussed, the tariffs are structured in a way to significantly reduce the overall impact to China's manufacturing sector from the tariffs we've imposed. We've imposed very high tariffs on China, which will damage their exports to the U.S. But we've also imposed very high tariffs on many (most?) of the low wage countries that were their biggest rivals for manufacturing. So while the tariffs on China damage them by denying them a market for their exports, the tariffs on places like Vietnam end up damaging those countries' manufacturing sectors - reducing their competitiveness. And since we're pulling our exports out of the Chinese economy, that creates a massive business opportunity for other Western nations to increase their bilateral trade with China - which similarly creates an opportunity for China to bargain for better access to those other nations' markets in exchange for taking over our spot in the Chinese market.
The practical upshot of our tariff plan is that we're not isolating China from the rest of the world; we're isolating ourselves from the rest of the world, including China. As the ROW adjusts, we can expect them to try to reach an equilibrium where international trade flows are strengthened between everyone except the U.S.
No. of Recommendations: 1
The practical upshot of our tariff plan is that we're not isolating China from the rest of the world; we're isolating ourselves from the rest of the world, including China.
Yep. We're all gonna die. Soon. The US is toast.
No. of Recommendations: 11
Yep. We're all gonna die. Soon. The US is toast.
Not what I said (though it is true that we're all gonna die, as such is the lot of all who are mortal).
The tariff structure that Trump imposed is terrible policy if constraining China is a policy priority. That doesn't mean we're all gonna die soon, or that the U.S. is toast. It just means that the Administration has chosen to adopt a policy that is not at all structured to constrain China. Instead of isolating China from the Western economies, the policy is going to simply isolate America from the Western economies, creating an opening for China to increase its bonds with the other OECD nations (and the developing world) as they rush to fill the vacuum created by our self-inflicted choice to give them that opening.
It's not the end of the world that the Administration chose to adopt an incredibly dumb proposal. It just means that we blew an opportunity to work towards constraining China, because the President has a fixation on (and probably a severe misunderstanding of) bilateral deficits in the trade of goods.
No. of Recommendations: 2
The tariff structure that Trump imposed is terrible policy if constraining China is a policy priority.
I know :). You've said this like 10 times already. Are you under the impression that I'm a big fan of trade wars? If you are let me unequivocally state that any time you engage in a "war" it's a lose-lose scenario.
However, once the fight is on you have to be the winner.
No. of Recommendations: 1
It just means that we blew an opportunity to work towards constraining China, because the President has a fixation on (and probably a severe misunderstanding of) bilateral deficits in the trade of goods.
If the QB fumbles the snap near his own goal line, his team is probably toast.
We are isolating ourselves, pushing others towards China while reducing our influence globally.
Yeah, we're toast. It will take decades to rebuild relationships and trust, if it can be done at all. And that assumes that no future POTUS is an illiterate moron, which almost certainly won't be the case.
No. of Recommendations: 8
Are you under the impression that I'm a big fan of trade wars?
No, I'm under the impression that you think these tariffs are part of an effort to contain China.
They're not. They're an effort to reduce the U.S. bilateral trade deficit in goods (not services) with every country in the world. A tariff program that was an effort to contain China would look nothing like this.
The tariff program has higher tariffs against China, because it has higher tariffs against every country. All the tariff levels were set using exactly the same made-up formula, with no variation whatsoever whether the tariff helped to constrain China or not.
Any impact on China's place in the world, or our strategic relationship with them, is a side effect of this program - not a goal or objective.
No. of Recommendations: 5
They're not. They're an effort to reduce the U.S. bilateral trade deficit in goods (not services) with every country in the world. A tariff program that was an effort to contain China would look nothing like this.
BTW, apparently Trump has announced a 90 day pause in some tariffs for some countries. Looks like it's gotten through to the Administration that they have to figure out what the goal is going to be here.
No. of Recommendations: 6
However, once the fight is on you have to be the winner.
Another way of characterizing this statement is:
Once the hole is dug, you have to dig it deeper.
Thankfully, he’s paused his digging for the moment. Probably because Democrats and Republicans were beginning to talk with one another about stopping him.
Another way of characterizing this particular strategy:
When you’re getting run out of town, get to the front and make it look like a parade.
No. of Recommendations: 4
It feels like investing today is increasingly just a gambling proposition on… what whim is the Prez going to act on today. Ugh.
No. of Recommendations: 2
No, I'm under the impression that you think these tariffs are part of an effort to contain China.
Because they are.
Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
And there you go. (from Truth Social just now)
No. of Recommendations: 2
Once the hole is dug, you have to dig it deeper.
Not the right metaphor.
As a martial artist yourself you know that you train to avoid fighting at all costs because the second you get into one, all sorts of bad options are on the table.
However...once it's on, it's on, and you better end up winning.
No. of Recommendations: 1
It feels like investing today is increasingly just a gambling proposition on… what whim is the Prez going to act on today. Ugh.
It means that the advice the Gardner brothers always gave was very good - don't react to day to day stuff. Invest in the long term.
A lot of people who are shorting the markets are getting *blasted* right about now.
No. of Recommendations: 2
And btw Trump did this exact same thing with Canada and Mexico. That’s why it was never a good idea to panic.
Which the media did, btw.
No. of Recommendations: 5
Yep. We're all gonna die. Soon. The US is toast.
No, but our democracy will die if we follow Trump and the Republicans down the path to authoritarianism.
No. of Recommendations: 8
Because they are.
No, not really. Trump's post indicates that they might change the tariffs into something that might actually work to contain China, but their original structure was completely unfit for that purpose.
Now the administration has to actually figure out what it is they want. Do they want to raise revenue? Do they want to near-eliminate trade deficits with countries like Vietnam? Do they want to contain China? Do they want to obtain trade concessions from all of our trading partners? Those are all different goals, and they are in many ways mutually inconsistent (a strategy for containing China doesn't involve hammering the EU and tariffing Vietnam and won't generate a lot of revenue, for example). I think the meeting with Netanyahu put all of this in stark relief. Netanyahu all but asked Trump to name his price to remove the tariffs....and Trump didn't have one. He doesn't know what he wants other than "goods trade deficit go to zero." There's no earthly reason related to China that we would have tariffs on Israel, for goodness sake.
No. of Recommendations: 13
And btw Trump did this exact same thing with Canada and Mexico. That’s why it was never a good idea to panic.
Which the media did, btw.Well, to be fair Trump did keep insisting over and over again that this would
not be like Canada and Mexico. That this time he meant it - that there would be no change in tariff policy, that unlike with Canada and Mexico, the tariffs were going to go into effect:
President Donald Trump said Sunday that he won’t back down on his sweeping tariffs on imports from most of the world unless countries even out their trade with the U.S., digging in on his plans to implement the taxes that have sent financial markets reeling, raised fears of a recession and upended the global trading system.https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-recession...I guess we should have known that we can't believe Trump when he says he won't back down on things, or when he says he has the courage of his convictions.
No. of Recommendations: 7
Not the right metaphor.
As a martial artist yourself you know that you train to avoid fighting at all costs because the second you get into one, all sorts of bad options are on the table.
However...once it's on, it's on, and you better end up winning.
Not arguing with this, because it’s true.
I’m arguing against saying that this is what Trump is doing. In short, it’s you superimposing your idea of what should be done upon Trump’s incoherent and peripatetic lack of strategy.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Yep. We're all gonna die. Soon. The US is toast.
It's not often you see a nation tie itself to the rotary bar and hoist itself on the BBQ. The US is actually roast pig, with a large Orange stuffed...
No. of Recommendations: 1
However...once it's on, it's on, and you better end up winning.
Ya need a different chess player.
No. of Recommendations: 3
"I guess we should have known that we can't believe Trump when he says he won't back down on things, or when he says he has the courage of his convictions."
LoL, I see what you did there, good one !
No. of Recommendations: 2
Now the administration has to actually figure out what it is they want. Do they want to raise revenue? Do they want to near-eliminate trade deficits with countries like Vietnam? Do they want to contain China?
They want to:
1. Reinvigorate the manufacturing base of the United States, especially with regards to in-shoring critical needs.
2. Begin the de-coupling process of Western economies from China in particular, but also lessening the general dependency on the Pacific Rim.
3. Pivot the strategic focus in a "who's the biggest threat the United States faces" away from Europe and towards China
Those are his objectives.
You're going to start really reading soon about how dire shipbuilding is in this country, for example. If you pay attention to thing like the NGAD program you'll hear about how it's going to be built to fly long distances from remote bases and over the ocean -the Pacific Ocean.
They did an announcement about coal today. They're going to pursue an all-of-the-above approach with energy and open up resource extraction here.
It doesn't do to de-couple from China only to introduce another dependency elsewhere.
No. of Recommendations: 3
I guess we should have known that we can't believe Trump when he says he won't back down on things, or when he says he has the courage of his convictions.
Every day I read on here TRUMP LIED HE LIED AGAIN OMG HE TOLD 10,000 LIES IN 20 SECONDS A WORLD RECORD. What, do you guys not believe your own posts? :)
No. of Recommendations: 3
It's not often you see a nation tie itself to the rotary bar and hoist itself on the BBQ. The US is actually roast pig, with a large Orange stuffed
We're doomed! DOOOOOOOooooooommmmmmmmmddddd....
No. of Recommendations: 2
Ya need a different chess player.
Jiu-jitsu is the most chess-like of all the martial arts.
No. of Recommendations: 16
Dope1: Jiu-jitsu is the most chess-like of all the martial arts.
Right. Chess-like.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer testified this morning about the reasons why the tariff policy was going to make America so damned great only to check his phone and find that Mad King Donnie blinked and turned everything he testified to hours ago into a steaming pile of bullshit.
Last night Stephen 'Goebbels' Miller insisted that the global tariffs were the greatest economic master strategy in history.
Two days ago the Trump White House called claims that Mad King Donnie would announce a 90-day tariff pause "Fake News."
Anyone who believes this clown show has a chess-like master strategy is dumber than a box of hair.
A clown with a flamethrower is still a clown.
No. of Recommendations: 5
Dope1: Jiu-jitsu is the most chess-like of all the martial arts.
LOL...you are always good for some comic relief in your blind Trump Devotion Syndrome.
As if Trump has a grand plan. His only real plan is to use his office to grift off the country and to get his petty spiteful revenge on whoever he sees as his enemy. Such a little man.
No. of Recommendations: 4
They want to:
1. Reinvigorate the manufacturing base of the United States, especially with regards to in-shoring critical needs.
They haven't done this. He's made distractive flapping noises about Greenland, Ukraine, but Ukraine has no mineable deposits - and no one has separated the few ones that may pay out. Canada and Greenland are a lot easier
2. Begin the de-coupling process of Western economies from China in particular, but also lessening the general dependency on the Pacific Rim.
Alienating countries is a stupid way to start. If you started stupidly, don't double down on stupid, get smart and make the best of the remaining hand you have. Not likely. So we'll double down on stupid and cut our balls off - with everyone watching.
3. Pivot the strategic focus in a "who's the biggest threat the United States faces" away from Europe and towards China
Just WTF do you think the Asian pivot under Obama was? Kick Putin in the balls, feed him some Plutonium, stop the favorable treatment, and make friends with everyone who hates or is uneasy with China. Play golf with them.
No. of Recommendations: 1
They haven't done this.
Which is why it's on the "they want to" list.
Alienating countries is a stupid way to start. If you started stupidly, don't double down on stupid, get smart and make the best of the remaining hand you have. Not likely. So we'll double down on stupid and cut our balls off - with everyone watching.
Nice visual.
Just WTF do you think the Asian pivot under Obama was? Kick Putin in the balls, feed him some Plutonium, stop the favorable treatment, and make friends with everyone who hates or is uneasy with China. Play golf with them.
This makes no sense. Obama was the worst foreign policy President we've had in decades, so there's that.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Which is why it's on the "they want to" list.
They haven't done anything to get it closer is the point. If you're serious, you make serious moves, not fluffy noises to your base - serious moves.
Nice visual.
That is also apt and nothing you've said negates any part of it - so ya hot nothin, eh?
Me: Just WTF do you think the Asian pivot under Obama was?
Dopster: This makes no sense. Obama was the worst foreign policy President we've had in decades, so there's that.
Me: Nothing on point to say? You are seriously lacking in this area, and Obama has you beat it seems. That is all.
No. of Recommendations: 1
They haven't done anything to get it closer is the point.
Hasn’t finished playing out yet.
That is also apt
See the above. You talking about slicing off anatomy is hardly high flying debate.
re seriously lacking in this area, and Obama has you beat it seems. That is all.
Erm, okay. I’m not even sure you know what you’re trying to say.
No. of Recommendations: 2
They haven't done anything to get it closer is the point.
Hasn’t finished playing out yet.
My point is that you have nothing to point to - yet, just dumb moves.
That is also apt
See the above. You talking about slicing off anatomy is hardly high flying debate.
I'm describing your moves in terms you can understand - and you don't respond directly and choose to quibble over terms - which means ya got nothing.
re seriously lacking in this area, and Obama has you beat it seems. That is all.
Erm, okay. I’m not even sure you know what you’re trying to say.
This is the exchange:
DOPE 3. Pivot the strategic focus in a "who's the biggest threat the United States faces" away from Europe and towards China
ME: Just WTF do you think the Asian pivot under Obama was? Kick Putin in the balls, feed him some Plutonium, stop the favorable treatment, and make friends with everyone who hates or is uneasy with China. Play golf with them.
Easy to understand - Obama made the pivot already. Deal better with Putin - quit mollycoddling him. Make better friends in Asia like getting back into the trade group you exited just because it was Obama. You're all talk so far.
No. of Recommendations: 1
My point is that you have nothing to point to - yet, just dumb moves.It hasn't played out yet. Glad you weren't around when the building of the Panama Canal was first taken up by the US.
I'm describing your moves in terms you can understand - and you don't respond directly and choose to quibble over terms - which means ya got nothing.
Uhhh, you're not saying anything.
Easy to understand - Obama made the pivot already. ROTFLMAO.
Is that why this stat exists? "The United States is 1% of global shipbuilding"
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo...Of course, Admiral Papar is probably lying.
That's some pivot to Asia! Heckuva job, Obamie.
No. of Recommendations: 3
This is your what you said:
They want to:
1. Reinvigorate the manufacturing base of the United States, especially with regards to in-shoring critical needs.
I point out you've made no rational moves that would do this and you respond.
DOPE: It hasn't played out yet. Glad you weren't around when the building of the Panama Canal was first taken up by the US.
You are just evading - the tariffs, as played by Trump, are just disruptive - the CHIPs act did something - you're just hoping something will fall out of the sky.
Uhhh, you're not saying anything.
No, you're just evading dealing with it.
Easy to understand - Obama made the pivot already.
ROTFLMAO.
Is that why this stat exists? "The United States is 1% of global shipbuilding"
Now this statement has nothing to do with what you were talking about before - which is that China is the enemy, not Russia.
U.S. President Barack Obama's East Asia Strategy (2009–2017), also known as the Pivot to Asia, represented a significant shift in the foreign policy of the United States since the 2010s. It shifted the country's focus away from the Middle Eastern and European sphere and allowed it to invest heavily and build relationships in East Asian and Southeast Asian countries, especially countries which are in close proximity to the People's Republic of China (PRC) either economically, geographically or politically to counter its rise as a rival potential superpower.[1]
So Obama did the Asian Pivot - perhaps you had trouble following your argument.
And as for ships:
In many cases, American manufacturing woes are a story of dominance (or at least success) followed by decline and stagnation. But with shipbuilding the story is different: U.S. shipbuilders have struggled to compete in the commercial market since roughly the Civil War. Outside of a few narrow windows, the U.S. has never been a major force in international shipping. The situation we face today, with U.S. ships costing at least twice as much to build as ships built elsewhere, is not a recent development; it’s been the norm for at least the past 100 years.
No. of Recommendations: 2
You are just evading - the tariffs, as played by Trump, are just disruptive - the CHIPs act did something - you're just hoping something will fall out of the sky.Hmmm? Don't follow the news, do we?
https://www.newsweek.com/business-trump-biden-inve...Johnson & Johnson: $55Bn over 4 years. Building new manufacturing.
SoftBank: $100 billion over 4 years. 100k jobs.
United Arab Emirates: $1.4T over 10 years. Multiple sectors.
TSMC (you can Google who this is): Another $100Bn. New R&D center and more fabs.
Open AI, Oracle and Softbank: $500Bn in AI infra. Go Google what that entails.
Apple: $500
Nvidia: 'hundreds of billions' in domestic manufacturing.
So let's recap.
For some reason you want to make it about me. Welp, that never works out for you, because I make it about
current events. U.S. President Barack Obama's East Asia Strategy (2009–2017), also known as the Pivot to Asia, represented a significant shift in the foreign policy of the United States since the 2010s. It shifted the country's focus away from the Middle Eastern and European sphere and allowed it to invest heavily and build relationships in East Asian and Southeast Asian countries, especially countries which are in close proximity to the People's Republic of China (PRC) either economically, geographically or politically to counter its rise as a rival potential superpower.[1]Wow! What a declaration!
Say - who has the world's biggest Navy? Is it us? You might then understand the significance of the 'ships' thing.
