No. of Recommendations: 13
Thanks Jim and FlyingCircus
I am looking for a system that can average about 10% with low drawdowns.
...
Any suggestions of conservative, low drawdown strategies, appreciated. I think the best solution is to consider deeply the reasons you want low drawdowns.
If you're retired and living from your portfolio with periodic liquidations, certainly a long drawdown will cause problems because you'll eat into your capital a bit more than you would like. But for most investors, what really matters is long term rate of return, not the smoothness of the ride along the way. It's a hard truth to remember, but an important one: you pay a high price for a smooth ride. Usually the high price is a low long run return, or something that isn't a safe place for your money. The harder you try, the bigger the risks you're taking (usually).
It's a pretty sure thing that almost any strategy using equities (your only hope of 10%/year) is going to lose you half your money on a mark-to-market basis from time time time. Learn to live with it, because it's the way the world works. There are strategies that do it someone less often, but no magic bullets. What you're looking for is what Mr Madoff was selling, and he had no trouble selling it, because that's what everybody wants (and nobody gets) : )
What I do instead is to do everything I can to make sure that the things I'm investing in will come back AFTER the price drop. i.e., price drops aren't a result of lasting value drops, just transient changes in market price. There are various ways to ensure that the companies you're investing in are financially robust with prospering business models. I am happy with investments which will make me money with high reliability over the next 3-5 years, and I don't really care about the current year. This places me in such a minority that it's like having no competition.
The closest I have managed is this
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y..."The goal is a screen which is as safe as the S&P 500 but with the hope of somewhat higher returns over the long run."It has done very nicely since then, about 3.5 years so far. The "dividend required" version in particular, which also backtests a whisker better anyway.
Sure, it will have big drawdowns like anything else. I mention it here partly because it has very high short-term market correlation. If you're like most people, a drawdown when everyone else is having one is not NEARLY as painful as a drawdown all by your lonesome. (emphatically true if you're a professional money manager!)
Jim
