Post #1003 by AdrianC on the Berkshire Hathaway board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤

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My methodology is similar, However?

Grove 4: What about cash in the rail business of $3.55 BB

I just assume they need it in the rail business. It's not available for investment.

Grove 3: Do you include the oxy preferred, Oxy Warrants and Oxy stock position. I don't believe the $308 BB equity portfolio includes any Oxy? Not sure. Can someone confirm or correct this?

Seabourne set us right on this - thanks.

Grove 1: Do you make any adjustment for reciprocity contract offsets to earnings? My view is the annual hit from reciprocity insurance programs needs to added back into operating after tax earnings.

Too fancy for me.

Where do you include the annual benefit of underwriting profits? I assume $1.39 BB which I believe is the average over the past 21 years.

Buffett didn't include it in the 5-groves. Just another area where the 5-groves IV is conservative. I expect that over time underwriting profits will be nicely positive.

Of course next quarter we can add the $5 BB benefit from the Pilot updated mark to market.

I also add some retained earnings YTD.

Overall I get [at 15X down to $361].

If I add back the 30% of float ($49Bn) "held as reserve", I get $359.
My $336 number is quite conservative, I think.

Just did a quick look through also: $338 at 15x

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