Post #2158 by mapg on the US Policy board

Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy ❤

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If I read it right there was some kind of shift from Large to Medium and/or Small-cap this week. The market continues to be choppy.

Modern Family   Symbol      Status   StatusD  Confirmed    Roles: (leading indicators that act as a guide for the stock market macro picture)
S&P 500 Index    .SPX      Bullish     246       Yes       - major U.S. market index
Russell 1000EW   EQAL      Bullish     235       Yes       - gauge the health of 1000 Equal Weighted companies within the U.S.
Russell 1000      IWB      Bullish     239       Yes       - gauge the health of 1000 Large-cap & Mid-cap companies within the U.S.
Russell 2000      IWM      Bullish      0        Yes       - gauge the health of 2000 Small-cap & Micro-cap companies within the U.S.
Transportation    IYT      BEARish     50      Not Yet     - measure Industry & Manufacture strength - supply and demand
Retail            XRT      Bullish     231       Yes       - measure strength economy and consumer confidence
Regional Banks    KRE      Bullish     66        Yes       - measure the health of financial system in the U.S.
BioTech           IBB      Bullish     58        Yes       - highly speculated: assesses where money is flowing
SemiConductor     SMH      Bullish     246       Yes       - innovation: a major player technology trends
As of (LastD)             12-Jul-24                        More Details: Posted end of month by mapg on the Mechanical Investing board (shrewdm.com)

   Market Trends     POs(24w)     PPO     Status     MAC(10m)      MAC     Status      DBE(5m)    %Off     Mode      CountIF  Allocation    Risk
 Intermediate-Term     Status   (30,120)   ChgD        Status   (TPw,210)   ChgD        Status   Hi(99)  NH(105)     Bullish    Eq-Wt       Gauges
SP600 (IJR) Daily     Bullish     0.9%      211   |   Bullish     5.1%       217   |   Bullish     NEW      0     |     3       20.0%      Risk_On
SP400 (MDY) Daily     Bullish     1.7%      214   |   Bullish     6.7%       225   |   Bullish    0.6%     73     |     3       20.0%      Risk_On
SP500EW (RSP) Daily   Bullish     1.6%      214   |   Bullish     6.1%       226   |   Bullish    0.3%     73     |     3       20.0%      Risk_On
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily   Bullish     4.5%      239   |   Bullish     13.6%      247   |   Bullish     NEW      0     |     3       20.0%      Risk_On
SP500 (.SPX) Daily    Bullish     4.9%      241   |   Bullish     14.7%      248   |   Bullish     NEW      0     |     3       20.0%      Risk_On
As of (LastD)        12-Jul-24    ---       ---      12-Jul-24     ---       ---      12-Jul-24    ---     ---         ---        ---     12-Jul-24
 CountIF(Bullish) =      5                               5                                5                            15       100.0%     Risk_On

      My Rankings         Friday, July 12, 2024     1      2      3     4      5      6      7     8     9    10     Sell  HTD    Buy
1-MAA: Long-Term (BRKB)   1-WtAvg: RRS(12,6,3,1)    FXAIX  FSPSX  BRKB  FFNOX  FSMAX  FXNAX  -     -     -    -       --   BRKB   --
2-MAA: Multi-Asset ETF's  2-WtAvg: RRS(12,6,3,1)    AOA    AOR    AOM   AOK    RLY    IYLD   -     -     -    -       --    --   AOA
3-QAA: Market ETF's       3-WtAvg: RRS(12,6,3,1)    PRF    IEFA   PRFZ  USRT   CMDY   TLT    SH    PSQ   -    -       --    --   PRF
4-QAA: Enhanced ETF's     4-WtAvg: RRS(12,6,3,1)    MTUM   LRGF   QUAL  USMV   SIZE   VLUE   COMT  EFAV  -    -       --    --   MTUM
6-QEW Equal-Wt'd ETF's    6-WtAvg: RRS(12,6,3,1)    EQWL   QQQE   EUSA  RSP    EDOW   EQAL   -     -     -    -       --    --   EQWL
5-ROE_GMI                 5-WtAvg: RRS(12,6,3,1)    NVDA   THC    AMAT  LRCX   DECK   UTHR   DVA   VRTX  OC   STLD    --    --    --
5-ROE_GMI: (11 thru 20)                             GWW    MPC    VLO   AOS    A      EXPD   ON    WAT   ZTS  DXCM    --    --    --

GD_

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Stock signal given by the Dow
Here's what this indicator says about stocks now.
Fidelity Active Investor

Dow theory is a chart pattern that can confirm uptrends or downtrends for stocks.
This indicator is flashing a worrisome sign.
Investors should monitor key fundamentals like earnings, inflation trends, and other factors in addition to chart trends.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average�which represents 30 of the biggest and most influential US companies�has gained roughly 5% year to date on a price return basis, as of mid-July. That's a bit behind last year's pace, when the blue chip index had gained roughly 7% by this time. It's also well behind the nearly 18% surge for the S&P 500.

With markets broadly at all-time highs, many investors have questioned whether stocks can continue to rally on relatively weak market breadth or if stretched valuations and other headwinds may put the rally at risk. Dow Theory might be suggesting the latter.

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