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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21944 
Subject: Re: OT-Greenblatt coffee can
Date: 01/31/23 3:16 PM
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The MFI method has underperformed in the recent decade according to Mungofitch I think...

Poor performance after a model is build is pretty normal for any quant method...backtests are never like reality.
The hope is that a method that backtests at market+10% might get you market+3% in reality.

The problem with the "magic formula" is a bit more interesting, and a bit bigger.
The method he proposed simply does not perform as he says it does, in the exact historical period that he originally tested.
As in: not within 10%/year of what he claimed, which (IIRC) was in the vicinity of 28%/year.
This was tested by quite a number of observers, with some testing databases of outstanding quality.

There are various possible explanations for this gap.

* His testing database or software was not of sufficiently high quality.
* He used some selection criteria that were not disclosed in the book.
* He made some errors in his testing methodology, including the risk of substantially overtuning to his test data set.
* He fibbed.
* Something else I haven't thought of?

He's a pretty respected person, so I personally do not suspect #4.
More likely some mix of #2 and #3.

Bottom line: the issue is NOT that MFI has not done well since it was published.
The issue is that it didn't do well (as described) before it was published.

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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