*                         1/15     1/22     1/29     2/5/24
S&P 500 Index             4783.83  4839.81  4890.97  4958.61
Trailing 12 month PE      24.92    25.27    25.74    25.99
Trail Earnings yield      4.01%    3.96%    3.89%    3.85%
Forward 12 month PE       22.05    22.08    22.31    22.62
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.54%    4.53%    4.48%    4.42%
90 day tbill yield        5.45     5.45     5.44     5.43
10 year tbond yield       3.96%    4.15%    4.15%    4.03%
Arezi Ratio               1.36     1.38     1.40     1.41
Fed Ratio                 0.87     0.92     0.93     0.91

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 49%
stocks, 51% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 29%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 78%.

Elan

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