Post #1563 by Said on the Mechanical Investing board

Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing

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Grantham quote:
for 7 months of the Presidential Cycle, from October 1st of the second year (this cycle, 2022) through April 30th of the third year (2023), the returns, since 1932, equal those of the remaining 41 months of the cycle! This has a less than one-in-a-million probability of occurring by chance

During Grantham's 7 months the S&P was up from 3726 to 4146 = 11%. Grantham claims during the remaining 41 months the returns equal those +11%, resulting in around +22% ("around" because to know exactly one would need to know more details).

I am not familiar with US elections but google says the election is on 5.Nov 2024. So the cycle started 4 years before, on 5.Nov 2020, right?

S&P then: 3549. +22%: 4330. S&P now: 5158.

So from Grantham's PC statistics is practically "guaranteed" that at the end of the year the S&P will be around 15% lower than now.

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