am i crazy to think global inflation is a lock, and some regional hyperinflation very likely?

I would guess that some global inflation is an absolute. You cannot engage in this kind of tariff fist shaking (and implementation) without it. Even if it achieves the desired result (more local jobs) that does not happen quickly: factories need to be built or retrofitted, distribution channels developed, etc. In the meantime your imported wares cost more, and competing domestic wares can “move up” because they have less pricing pressure.

As for hyperinflation, you really have to go the extra mile to get there. Sure, it has happened many times throughout human history, but over the past half century only in places that don’t matter (yes, that’s pejorative to Argentina and Venezuela, certain African countries, etc) to the world economy as a whole. I’m not worried about that, at least not yet.

Actual inflation - and the dreaded “stagflation” which those of us old enough to remember the 70’s, is a real possibility.

Macroeconomic Trends and Risks FAQ

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