Summary: As we would expect, all the BearCatchers and most intermediate term signals are full Bull, after the strong market bullish move starting immediately after the October selloff. However, there’s evidence of a short term top warning; the source is two big reversal days in the last 2 weeks with flips in the advances/declines. It could be a (very) short term bearish trade opportunity, or it could be yet another piece of untradeable computer-driven market ephemera.

WEATHERVANE (US MKT)		10		TOP/BREADTH
                                     BEARS/TOP | BULLS/BOTTOM	AS OF
Intermediate-Term				
BearCatcher	Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows	    Bull	12/8/23
BearCatcher	SMA Slope, S&P 500		    Bull	11/10/23
BearCatcher	Dying Bullish Euphoria  	    Bull	12/14/23
BC Summary	The Key		3	
Momentum, Int	# 26 week highs		            Bull	12/29/23
Momentum, Int	DMI		                    Bull	12/22/23
Momentum, Int-Term	10/50 Crossover		    Bull	11/9/23
Momentum, Int	PPO Weekly		            Bull	11/17
Momentum, Int	26W / 52W		            Bull	11/10/23
Breadth, midterm	PAMA Naz 50		    Bull	12/1
Breadth, midterm	Naz Bullish %		    Bull	12/15/23
Breadth, midterm	S&P PAMA 200		    Bull	12/15/23
Breadth Thrust	Breadth Thrust			
Correction Mode	>7% off last peak		    Bull	11/9/23
Timing, Seasonal	MACD on RUT		    Bull	11/2/23
Interest Rates	Corporate Bond Index		    Bull	11/10/23
Short Term	Top Warning	6		
Momentum, ST	PPO Daily	            Bear		12/29/23
Breadth, short term	SP600 PAMA20		     Bull	11/10
Breadth, short term	PAMA5D %OFF 21dh    Bear		12/29/23
Top, short term	PAMA Divergence Highs	    Bear		12/15/23
Top	PAA Count	                    Bear		12/18/23
Top	Recent Simple Top	            Bear		12/7/23
Top	Primary-Tech Divergence		

With the end of October indicators, in hindsight, the bottom indicators were firing appropriately.
https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=410997888 (November)

GTAA Indicators

Asset Class	      Signal	Since	     # wks	Top6	To MA	Rank
US LC	                IN	11/3/23	        8	X	1.075	5
US LC Momentum	        IN	11/3/23	        8		1.09	7
US SC	                IN	12/1/23	        4	X	1.10	2
US SC Mom./Growth	IN	11/24/23	5	X	1.11	1
For. Developed	        IN	11/17/23	6		1.072	9
For. Dev. SmallCap	IN      12/1/23	        4		1.059	8
Emerging	        IN	11/17/23	6	X	1.071	6
Real Estate	        IN	11/29/23	4	X	1.103	3
Foreign Real Estate	IN	11/29/23	4	X	1.121	4
Total Bond	        IN	11/29/23	4		1.04	12
10Y US Gov	        IN	11/29/23	4		1.04	13
Global High Yield	IN	1/6/23	        51		1.06	10
Preferred	        IN	11/3/23	        8		1.063	11
Cash/ST						                1.032	14

US SmallCaps and Real Estate have exploded upward in the last 8 weeks with the flattening interest rate forecasts. As a result, a GTAA-4 approach would newly focus on US small caps, US smallcap growth, US REITs and ex-US REITs for the upcoming month. A GTAA-6 (moderate) approach would include US Large Caps (of course) and Emerging Markets (also newly strong since early November).

FC

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