When reading posts, there are yellow stars against the names of the most respected Shrewds. The number of points in the star, starting at 3, represents the Shrewd'm-Star rating. This number is the average recommendation that the author received over the last 12 months.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 0
No. of Recommendations: 0
No. of Recommendations: 15
" Trump Has Tucker Carlson to Blame for the Abject Disaster of Selecting JD Vance as His Running Mate."
Give. Me. A. Break.
Do you know who is responsible for selecting JD Vance as his running mate?
Dementia Don.
Period. Full stop.
This is the perfect example of a brain addled decision by someone who
is lazy and ignorant. And weird.
Dementia Don’s only has 2 criteria for liking someone; how much money will they give him and how far the obsequious rat will be willing to stick their head up his buttocks.
Dementia Don owns this lock, stock, and barrel.
Want to know how a pro chooses a competent VP? Watch Kamala.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Want to know how a pro chooses a competent VP? Watch Kamala.
What did you think of Biden's pick of Harris? Many at the time thought there were better choices. Did Joe choose wisely? I'm still undecided, though she seems to be batting a thousand lately!
No. of Recommendations: 0
" Dementia Don owns this lock, stock, and barrel."
Obviously, trump had Vance vetted, how much he paid Hunter to do it hasn't yet been disclosed!
No. of Recommendations: 1
I hate to break it to this board, but VP picks largely don't matter.
What did Harris deliver for Biden? California? LOL. Was going blue no matter what.
How about Pence for Trump? Indiana was always going red.
Or Biden for Obama? Very little, as it turns out.
No, this is going to be slugged out on three issues:
1. Inflation/the economy
2. Immigration and the border
3. Public safety
The democrats are on their back foot with all 3 and especially #2. Kamala's statements are going to be awesome to use on that one especially.
No. of Recommendations: 11
No, this is going to be slugged out on three issues:
1. Inflation/the economy
2. Immigration and the border
3. Public safety
1). Economy firing on all cylinders, inflation dropping like a rock, interest rates to fall.
2) Republicans killed bipartisan bill. Even with that, illegal immigration is below Dementia Don levels.
3) Republicans strongly oppose common sense gun safety laws.
And, like LM, we forgive Kamala for ALL her sins.
Next.
No. of Recommendations: 3
I hate to break it to this board, but VP picks largely don't matter.
They do matter, though they don't always show up in winning a state.
The Pence pick wasn't about winning Indiana - it was forging a political bond with the evangelical base. Trump had no relationship or history with the evangelical base, and had weakness with that part of the GOP heading out of the primary. The Pence pick was key to shoring that up. The Harris pick similarly wasn't about winning California - it was about strengthening the bond with the black base of the party.
Once the choice is made, the past record and campaign skills of the VP largely don't matter much - though there are exceptions (hi, Sarah Palin and Dan Quayle). The choice of the VP is important, but after that it doesn't matter too much. The VP is often just Surrogate #1 for campaigning and fundraising, which is certainly valuable but not all that much more so than other top-ranking surrogates.
Honestly, as U.S. political parties become more sorted on ideology and less on other more regional interests, geographic VP selections have become far less relevant than other factors.
No. of Recommendations: 2
1). Economy firing on all cylinders, inflation dropping like a rock, interest rates to fall.
After spiking prices crushed many families.
0 for 1.
2) Republicans killed bipartisan bill. Even with that, illegal immigration is below Dementia Don levels.
Wide open border, flooded towns, terror suspects coming in.
0 for 2.
3) Republicans strongly oppose common sense gun safety laws.
Taking guns away from citizens while letting criminals run wild. Yeah, that's a winning strategy.
0 for 3.
I still think Harris wins because the voting public is highly stupid *and* your ability to gaslight the public is 10/10. But on actual issues? You folks have nothing.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Ron Filipkowski @RonFilipkowski
Trump’s tired, off-the-strip Vegas lounge act that America is a failing 3rd World nation about to enter a Great Depression and World War 3 while being overrun by mentally-ill brown people committing crimes isn’t working because most Americans aren’t morons like his MAGA cult.
No. of Recommendations: 0
" The VP is often just Surrogate #1 for campaigning and fundraising, which is certainly valuable but not all that much more so than other top-ranking surrogates."
trump is 78 and obese, what's his life expectancy? In this case VP matters to me.
No. of Recommendations: 2
trump is 78 and obese, what's his life expectancy? In this case VP matters to me.
Is there any person that DJT could plausibly have chosen for VP that would have made you decide not to vote for Harris instead of him in 2024?
That's the real point. Of course the VP matters substantively, but the VP choice isn't likely to affect the outcome of the election - because almost no one will switch their vote based directly on their assessment of the VP.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Is there any person that DJT could plausibly have chosen for VP that would have made you decide not to vote for Harris instead of him in 2024?
OCD: decide to vote for Harris instead of him. I assume you're voting for DJT, else his VP choice doesn't really matter.
No. of Recommendations: 0
" Is there any person that DJT could plausibly have chosen for VP that would have made you decide not to vote for Harris instead of him in 2024?"
The gop went through the process, trump won but Haley was the last person standing. If trump had reconciled with Haley and picked her, it would be all over bud. How did the Dems pick their VP in 2020, merit? Thank you.
No. of Recommendations: 3
The gop went through the process, trump won but Haley was the last person standing. If trump had reconciled with Haley and picked her, it would be all over bud.
That wasn't really my question.
You mentioned that Trump's VP pick was important to you due to his age. But was it? Is there any plausible VP choice that would have led you to vote for Harris instead of Trump?
No. of Recommendations: 0
"" You mentioned that Trump's VP pick was important to you due to his age. But was it? Is there any plausible VP choice that would have led you to vote for Harris instead of Trump?""
Trump already did it by picking Vance. WHO will run with Harris? If trump wins with Vance, who becomes the huge favorite to be the GOP nominee in 2028? What is Vance's position on gay marriage and gay adoptions, I can't find it? If Harris picks anyone acceptable to Sanders, Warren, and Aoc, the party is pretty much dead to me. Thanks.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Trump already did it by picking Vance.
Really? You're supporting Harris because of Trump's pick of JD Vance? That's surprising. Why is that?
No. of Recommendations: 0
If trump wins with Vance, who becomes the huge favorite to be the GOP nominee in 2028?
Maybe Vance, maybe not. The GOP has a number of very good governors (like DeSantis, Huckabee Sanders) who would be primed and ready to go in 2028.
No. of Recommendations: 1
WHO will run with Harris?
The leading candidates are Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, Jay Beshear, Roy Cooper, and Tim Walz. Gretchen Whitmer and Pete Buttigieg are more longshots.
None of them are particular favorites of, or unacceptable to, the progressive faction of the party.
No. of Recommendations: 0
“ The leading candidates are Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, Jay Beshear, Roy Cooper, and Tim Walz. Gretchen Whitmer and Pete Buttigieg are more longshots.“ Are they all as pro Israel as Shapiro? I say he has no chance.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Are they all as pro Israel as Shapiro? I say he has no chance.Probably. Most of them seem to fall within a pretty narrow band of past actions. Shapiro faces a lot more mistrust because he is Jewish, I fear - but none of the potential candidates are going to thrill the most pro-Palestinian segments of the party.
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/josh-sh...
No. of Recommendations: 0
" Really? You're supporting Harris because of Trump's pick of JD Vance? That's surprising. Why is that?"
Never said that bud, I'm interested in seeing WHO she picks AND who replaces Vance. I'm undecided with respect to, who sucks less. To repeat, I'm interested in Vance's position on nontraditional marriages and adoptions, help me out, I can't find it, just in case Vance stays? Thank you.
No. of Recommendations: 0
" Maybe Vance, maybe not. The GOP has a number of very good governors (like DeSantis, Huckabee Sanders) who would be primed and ready to go in 2028."
The Dem party has many qualified candidates too, how did they make out in 2024? Thank you.
No. of Recommendations: 1
The Dem party has many qualified candidates too, how did they make out in 2024? Thank you.
Like...who? The democrat bench is almost nonexistent. They have:
KY gov Beshear: Comes from a red state, won't appeal to the coastal proggie types.
PA gov Shapiro: He's Jewish and supports Israel. There's increasingly no place a guy like him in the modern democrat party.
WA future governor Bob Ferguson (after he wins in November): Will be seen as a rising star. He's an odious politician, the worst kind of lying shape shifter possible. Coastal dems will love this guy.
CA gov Gavin Newsome: Has the distinction of being the only governor - ever - to preside over a reduction in Population as people are fleeing his state. Then there's his budget deficits...
Then there's Whitmer, also yuck.
No. of Recommendations: 1
To repeat, I'm interested in Vance's position on nontraditional marriages and adoptions, help me out, I can't find it, just in case Vance stays? Thank you.So, a little googling only finds one circumstance where he directly discusses his views on gay marriage (which I assume you meant by "nontraditional", rather than say polygamy).
Ohio Republican Candidate for U.S. Senate, J.D. Vance, told Mission America that he would vote “no” on a bill to legalize same sex marriage.
We asked, “How would you vote if you were in the Senate at this time on the same sex marriage question?”
He replied, “I would vote no on that legislation,” and believes “the religious liberty piece of this is very bad.”https://www.missionamerica.com/article/jd-vance-sa...Not promising, if you're concerned about that particular issue. The bill passed prior to his taking office, so he never actually took a vote.
I couldn't find anything about his views on gay adoption. From the above, we can infer that he would at least support conservative adoption organizations' ability to exclude gay couples from participating in their programs (which is the scenario where gay adoption most visibly intersects with "religious liberty").
No. of Recommendations: 0
"Then there's Whitmer, also yuck."
You left out Amy, who earned the VP spot in 2020, Wes Moore, and who knows how many others might not be known on the national scene. Thats why you have the process which Jill and Hunter prevented.
No. of Recommendations: 0
" Not promising, if you're concerned about that particular issue. The bill passed prior to his taking office, so he never actually took a vote.
I couldn't find anything about his views on gay adoption. From the above, we can infer that he would at least support conservative adoption organizations' ability to exclude gay couples from participating in their programs (which is the scenario where gay adoption most visibly intersects with "religious liberty")."
Thank you, that's what I found as well. Hopefully one day someone will ask Vance his position on these issues. Has trump opined on these issues recently? IF, IF, Vance verbalizes those positions, he and trump are not an option for me and many others. Extended family members are currently dealing with these issues. The 64 BILLION dollar question of the day? IF, Vance and friends feel the way they do about adults with no children, and IF it's very difficult for nontraditional married couples to adopt, what is their solution? Firing squads? Prison? Scared straight, what? Thanks, bud.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Thank you, that's what I found as well. Hopefully one day someone will ask Vance his position on these issues. Has trump opined on these issues recently? IF, IF, Vance verbalizes those positions, he and trump are not an option for me and many others. Extended family members are currently dealing with these issues. The 64 BILLION dollar question of the day? IF, Vance and friends feel the way they do about adults with no children, and IF it's very difficult for nontraditional married couples to adopt, what is their solution? Firing squads? Prison? Scared straight, what? Thanks, bud.I don't believe Trump has made any recent statements about gay marriage. Probably the closest thing would be the GOP platform-writing committee (which he controlled) electing to remove objections to gay marriage from the platform, much to the ire of the evangelical portion of the GOP base.
On adoption, the DOJ filed a brief in support of a religious organization adoption agency arguing that they should be able to reject gay couples from their programs:
https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/adoption-a...I don't think that Vance believes gay couples (I don't understand why you're using "nontraditional" here, since I don't think you're including polygamist or bigamist or other types of marriages) should be
punished for not having their own biological kids. He's just saying that they're
lesser because of it. That they won't be as patriotic or mindful of the future or committed to making the world a better place or whatever.
As I so often mention on the boards, though,
politics is a team sport. In many respects, it doesn't matter all that much whether Trump or Vance (or any given Congressional candidate)
personally support gay marriage or gay adoption. It's far more important whether the coalitions that they bring to power do or don't support those things.
Any Republican President makes it more likely that the federal government will advance conservative positions (and vice versa for a Democratic President and progressive positions), regardless of the personal policies of the President himself. I think Trump is unlikely to
personally care too much about gay marriage or gay adoption, so those are not likely to be among things that the Oval Office pushes to the top of
their agenda - but it's also very likely that his various appointees in the Executive and on the bench are going to have a more conservative view of that issue than you would get with a Democratic President.
