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Hi Jim,

I recall you that medical devices ETF has beaten S&P500 and QQQ over the long term.

IHI, the US Medical Devices index ETF, is down 22% YTD and 13% over 5 years.

Seems like a safe place to hide from AI.

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ihi/quote

US medical technology stocks, once high-flying, now trade at far more reasonable valuations. The S&P 500 Health Care Equipment Index is trading at a 10-year low on two-year forward earnings estimates, down from a peak price-to-earnings ratio of 30 times earnings in 2021 to 16 times earnings last month.

Many device makers were viewed as companies worth paying a high price for, with profits that could grow steadily year after year, until the GLP-1 panic hit. Investors feared weight-loss drugs would shrink the obese population — and, with it, demand for surgeries. At the same time, post-Covid procedure normalization and renewed concerns over payer prior authorization added fears of weaker pricing power.

Revenue and earnings should continue to compound even if valuation multiples do not rise. The US Census Bureau projects an approximate 42% increase in the number of people aged 65 and older from 2022 to 2050. Joint replacements, pacemakers, valves and stents are largely non-discretionary procedures.

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/how-to-invest-1...

I'm not fond of ETFs in general, as they are almost all cap weight. I mentioned positive things about an equally weighted portfolio in medical devices.

They were reliable outperformers as a group, then started into a long relative-to-market slump as a group. Somewhere down there is, I believe, a relative bottom: a point at which a slate of such firms will again start to be good relative-to-market performers. But then again, I apparently believe many things which are not true.

The history:
An equally weighted portfolio of all the medical device firms listed in the Value Line 1700 database beat the S&P by a remarkable 8.9%/year 1997-2020 inclusive. That's why I said good things about the group.
They then lagged the S&P by a whopping 15.9%/year 2021-2025 inclusive, lagging each calendar year and actually losing you money overall, which is a pretty neat trick.

The optimistic observation: they had a similar stretch of steady underperformance 1997-1999. If you remember what was happening in the market then. That came to an end. So, the wild speculation: when this bull market cracks, and with no particular hurry, allocate some money to this group. There are about 60 such stocks on average lately. Value Line has two categories, invasive and non-invasive medical devices, and I lump them together.

(that's without any other filtering among the firms...I usually look at the ones with the highest cash-to-market-cap ratio, to tilt away from the weak hands. 5 year sales growth is another good filter for this group)

Jim

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