No. of Recommendations: 2
I mean, no more than "stock market" is bogus.
Disagree. There is data behind a stock market. 10Ks and 10Q. Press releases, annual reports, and more. It's not an exact prediction, but there is at least some data behind it to make some educated guesses what is going to happen.
Same with straight gambling. Poker there are odds for various hands. Basketball there are stats for players and teams. Etc. Odds still favor the house, but that doesn't negate the data out there.
The prediction markets are just measures of people's willingness to bet on something. There's no underlying data. So, to pick the low hanging fruit, there is NO data whatsoever that Jesus was even divine, much less the anticipated "savior" (he didn't fulfill the Judaic requirements, which is why there are still religious Jews today), or that the Abrahamic story is anything more than fantasy. So, based on data, the odds of Jesus returning this year is ZERO. But the "market" says 3%.
They just distill the views of the masses.
Yes. And, in the case of sports there is data that many of the masses use. And in the case of elections, it is the masses that are voting. But Jesus returning, or how many times the Felon will say "bigly" in a SOTU address, has no data. And, as John Oliver revealed, the vast majority of people participating in those "markets" lose money. The ones who win seem to be using insider information (which in other contexts is illegal). It's just a betting ring that claims it isn't a betting ring (you should have seen the founder of one of the "markets" trying to spin that one under a reporter's persistent questioning).
