No. of Recommendations: 5
From Chairman Powell's Q&A today
Q:
Hi, Chair Powell. Rachel Siegel from The Washington Post.
Thank you for taking our questions. I know we've talked a bit about how Silicon Valley Bank was unique to a certain sector of the economy, but there's also growing concern that there are financial stability risks from the commercial real estate market and loans that will begin to roll over later this year and next, and that smaller regional banks also disproportionately hold those loans. Is there a risk that could mimic the kind of what we saw with SVB to banks that disproportionately are focused in commercial real estate?
MR. POWELL: So, you know, we're well aware of the concentrations people have in commercial real estate. I really don't think it's comparable to this. The banking system is strong, it is sound, it is resilient, it's well capitalized, and I really don't see that as at all analogous to this.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Five days ago The Real Estate Round Table sent a letter to Chairman Powell and Vice Chairman Barr describing financial stresses building in the commercial real estate market.
"As recently as February, the Federal Reserve raised concerns about valuation pressures on certain asset classes: 'In particular, the staff noted that measures of valuations in both residential and commercial property markets remained high, and that the potential for large declines in property prices remained greater than usual.'[5]
The risk to financial institutions, including the Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities sector, and potentially to the overall financial system and the economy, posed by inflexible snapshot examinations of commercial real estate loans is quite high and, in our view, very much unnecessary.
The approximately $20 trillion commercial (CRE) and multifamily (MF) commercial real estate market is financed with $5.5 trillion of debt[6], 50.3% of which is provided by commercial banks (in general, conservative leverage when originated). Of that outstanding debt, approximately $936 billion of CRE and MF debt is maturing in 2023 and 2024."https://www.rer.org/docs/default-source/comment-le...They include a chart showing $1.45 TRILLION of commercial and multifamily debt scheduled to roll in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Mortgage rates for residential have more than doubled over the last year. Will this not be an area of concern for commercial RE, especially office as well? Sharply rising interest rates combined with corresponding lower property valuations?
Perhaps Chairman Powell didn't get the memo? More defaults coming?
