No. of Recommendations: 2
The only source I have found is the *graph* in the Factset weekly Earnings Insight report which is, for now, inexplicably free. For example, in the current file dated August 7, the graph at the top of page 35 (almost at the end), the black line is what you want. I have been reduced to using a graph-to-data conversion tool : ) With some imprudent zooming in and interpolating at the half-pixel level, I get the latest figure as $273.88.I think all EPS numbers in Factset, including above, are Operating earnings and not Reported earnings.
In any case, keeping aside the distinction between the two, the numbers on page 32 are stunning! S&P 500 Bottom-Up EPS for CY26 and CY27 are 258 and 405 respectively. This is truly remarkable. We are quickly heading towards an era where the index will earn more than 100
per quarter.
Circa 100
per year was the norm as recently as a decade ago. It doubled to 200 per year by 2021. Now are looking at 400 per year by 2027! That's why 400*20 = 8000 is within striking distance.
Yes profit margins are at a all time high (> 12%) and they may mean revert and the road might be bumpy and so on. But the big picture takeaway for me is that 400 EPS per year will be the baseline for the index soon.
Eternal optimist Mr. Buffett has always said "the system works", "American tailwind", "Never bet against America", etc. But I am guessing these numbers are beyond even what he imagined. He may have revised upward his estimate of what the American economy is capable of. This may in part explain why he seems comfortable merrily throwing billions at Google.
Aug 7 Earnings Insight
advantage.factset.com: PDF document