No. of Recommendations: 2
Mark19 wrote:
I just read in the wall street journal that by historic measures, using the cape, the foward p/e, and the Fed model that large cap stocks are very overvalued.I hate to break this to you, but the Fed model has gone the way of the dodo bird. It is extinct and useless.
Quoting from Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fed_model Lack of predictive power * The analysis shows that the Fed model has no power to forecast long term stock returns
* In 2018, Ned Davis Research ran a test of the Fed model's ability to predict subsequent 10-year returns using data from the previous 75 years. Davis found that "it was basically worthless"
* In April 2014, Dr. Yardeni wrote of his Fed model: "[1997] was just about when the model stopped working as a useful investment tool. "
Do you think we should have a slight tilt towards foreign and smaller stocks?Since you've also discussed your interest in options plays, and now are asking about other asset classes, here's my advice. I think you should sit down with a financial advisor. It will be worth it to find someone qualified who can tailor an asset allocation that fits your retirement goals. We don't know anything about how far away you are from retirement, how long you need that retirement to last, your annual living expenses, taxable brokerage accounts, IRAs etc, etc. The FA will take all these factors into account and come up with a plan. Find a fee-only fiduciary in your area by doing a Google search.
Good luck.
