First, the future can easily be far, far worse than anything seen in the past. Why would anyone believe otherwise?

I suppose we could certainly have a war far, far worse, but I doubt we'd have a recession worse than 1929. Why would I believe that? I took a few economics courses in college, and I think that all those smart professors and fed chairs actually have learned something about monetary policy. I recently watched "The Boys in the Boat", and was impressed with the depiction of the Great Depression. Deficit spending for WWII showed how to get out of that sort of downturn, and while we have not managed monetary policy wonderfully, I think we have done better.

I'm not saying I don't appreciate the numbers you put out there on the current price of equities though. They are hard to refute and not enough people seem worried. I think we will see some big time disappointment in long term appreciation.

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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