Sorry. I made this point in PickTrader's thread beginning Jan 2nd. No ned to repeat it. I do think that the knees in BV/share versus time, such as the one that occurred in 1999, show that we need to be cautious about extrapolating the trend of BV/share versus time. I also suspect that the change in the growth rate of the S&P 500 index from 13%/yr pre-1999 to 6%/year post-1999 was responsible for the change in the growth rate of Berkshire's BV/share from 27%/year pre-1999 to 10.3% post-1999. Berkshire's equity portfolio makes up roughly half of BV. In trying to extrapolate BV/share growth I would give considerable weight to the expected growth rate of the S&P 500. Growth rates can turn sharply if a stock market bubble bursts.

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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