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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: Dope1   😊 😞
Number: of 48447 
Subject: Re: Trump a vacuous moron
Date: 03/03/2025 8:35 PM
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It could be - I don't think anyone has said that NATO membership is the only way to guarantee Ukraine's security. There are many reasons why it's both a good and bad idea, but it's not the only solution.

Indeed. Hence the economic framework as a starting point.

But that's part of why Trump's come under so much criticism from Ukraine's defenders. The essential element of a Taiwan-like solution (apart from memorializing it in a treaty) is unwavering public commitment to the security policy. You have to make sure that the other side holds no misconceptions about the willingness and capability to defend the smaller country.

And what needs to be first and foremost in anyone's mind is that if you're willing to do what this board wants (The US guarantees their security) then you need to be prepared to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

That's what a "security guarantee" means. So far, not a single board member has been willing to station large numbers of troops there. Fine, maybe we don't need to do that. But is the Ukraine going to be the thing you would start World War III over?

I'd argue that no, it shouldn't be. All you folks pushing for this should think carefully about what you would commit the US to. If your answer is "Europe should do it", then the counter to that is, "With what?"

if Trump is willing to let Russia get all of its war aims in Ukraine despite being the unprovoked aggressor, Russia's certainly not going to regard the U.S. as a likely defender of Ukraine if they decide to eat the rest of it down the road. And that ratchets up the danger for Taiwan as well; if the U.S. is willing to live with just token consequences for Russia attacking and seizing sovereign territory in their sphere of influence, China may conclude that the same is on offer in Taiwan.

First off, I've noticed that most of (read: 99.9999999999%) of the hostility towards Trump is driven by hypotheticals, such as this one above.

Secondly, Taiwan is of vastly more strategic importance to the US (and the rest of the world) than the Ukraine is. They're not remotely the same situation.

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