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Summary here, details below. My signals "weathervane" turned decidedly "short term bearish/top" a few weeks ago in 2nd week December, reflecting index performance of SPY and the Naz.
The BearCatchers ex-Naz/NH/NL have remained in bull state, indicative of both NH/Nl's shorter term nature and the outstanding run the US megacap indexes have been on for the last 6 months.

However, the other intermediate signals got flipped to mostly bearish by 12/20/24 as the result of that week's selling crescendo. A minor bottom signal actually fired that week, it got bad enough. The ones that I pay attention to the most - PPO weekly, and its contemporary DMI - have been bearish since mid-November.

Of note, the notorious Hindenburg Omen actually went bearish just as its 1-month confirmation timer ran out, which gives me more pause than usual.

Not shown below (yet) but Emerging Markets and Foreign Developed (think EAFE) have had a terrible two+months of selling and are firmly bearish.

Recent breadth has been bad, indicated by the rapid-response "top warning" score which has been flashing red for 2 months.

Sharing on why the "but...": I recently completed my first predictive modeling exercise using the weekly logging of these signals for the last 6 or so years. My premise was, "does a major change up or down in the bullish/bearish total score have any predictive validity about market returns for the following 1, 2 or 3 months?" (subtext: does this stuff even matter?) The answer, statistically: no correlation / relationship from score changes to forward returns. What this dashboard indicates is what HAS happened; not, generally, what's statistically-valid likely to happen next.

I'm going to do some mining next for if there are standout signals to use, or a couple of other targeted studies. ChatGPT has suggested a few so there's that ;-).

WEATHERVANE (US MKT)		-7		Get Out/potential BOTTOM
				
Intermediate-Term	-2	        BEARS/TOP    BULLS	AS OF
BC	Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows	Bear		        12/20/24
BC	SMA Slope, S&P 500		             Bull	11/10/23
BC	Dying Bullish Euphoria comb.		     Bull	12/14/23
BC Summary	The Key	                1	     2	
Momentum, Int	26W / 52W		             Bull	11/10/23
Momentum, Int	DMI			                        1/3/25
Momentum, Int	10/50 Crossover	        Bear	                12/20/24
Momentum, Int	PPO Weekly	        Bear		        11/8
Breadth, midterm	PAMA Naz 50	Bear	                12/20
Breadth, midterm	Breadth Confirm	Bear		         1/3
Breadth, midterm	Naz Bullish %	Bear		        12/20
Breadth, midterm	S&P PAMA 200	Bear		        12/24/24
Breadth Thrust	Breadth Thrust		Watch	
Correction Mode	>7% off last peak		    Bull	12/20/24
Timing, Seasonal	MACD on RUT		    Bull	10/16/24
Interest Rates	Corporate Bond Index	Bear	        	11/22/24
VIX	Volatility		                    Bull	12/27
Valuation	Sjuggerud mod		            Bull	9/19
Hindenburg	Omen	                Bear		        12/16
				
Short Term	Top Warning	        5		
Momentum, ST	PPO Daily	        Bear		        12/20/24
Breadth, ST	SP600 PAMA20	        Bear       		12/20
Momentum, Int	# 26 week highs		                	12/31/24
Breadth, short term	PAMA5D %OFF 21d	Bear		        1/3/25
Top, short term	PAMA Divergence Highs	Bear		        12/6/24
Top	PAA Count                	Bear	         	10/24/24
Top, breadth, ST Trigger Security			
Top	Recent Simple Top		                 	12/4/24
Top	Primary-Tech Divergence		                  	8/23/24
Bottom	Extreme PAMA low		Off	                12/19/24

Total portfolio return in 2024 was 8.5% including being on average 45% fixed income, 40% equities of various asset classes, and 15% cash. Best wishes for however you define success in 2025.

FC

< Best wishes for however you define success in 2025.>

Backatcha, FC.
And thanks for all your sharing of your work and contributions.

:-)Shawn

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