Post #2907 by mechinv on the US Policy board

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[NHNL] - 11 flips in 11 months this year

Yes, you would have done much better if you had ignored NH-NL these past 2 years.

Regarding the BCCs in general, you would have matched the market's return this year if your rule was to sell your index ETF only if all 3 BCCs flipped bearish. That never happened this year.

But if your rule was was to sell when any of the BCCs - including NH-NL - flipped bearish, and rebuy only when all 3 flipped back bullish, then your YTD return would only have been 1.7%. So you'd actually be losing money due to inflation.

The S&P 500 has returned 26% this year (including dividends).

See this thread on how to backtest both the strategies above: https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=-2&previousPostID=7...

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