No. of Recommendations: 7
I wouldn't bet on Russia being all that degraded.
I would. I've written in detail in the past. A brief summary: their Black Sea Fleet is seriously damaged. Early-on they lost most of their MBTs (latest T-90), and replacement is slow. So they have been emptying their boneyards all the way back to WWII equipment. They lost a lot of their first-line personnel, and have since depleted their prison population in the effort. The age distribution of troop casualties has shifted to older as they enlist more older people because they're running out of younger ones. They lost something like 1/3 of their bomber fleet.
Yes, they have been getting support from DPRK. Which means they've run out of shells, and need to augment with DPRK shells, which have a reported failure rate of 30-40% (last I knew). Their troops are a joke, according to the Ukrainians. Yes, they are fodder for the Russians to throw at the Ukrainians. But not a serious threat, apparently.
Just the European NATO alliance would pound Russia into the ground at this point. Russia would have to go nuclear, which I don't think even Putin would think is a good idea. If the US honors its commitment, Russia would lose pretty much everything they sent to the front. It would be a rout. That perhaps wasn't true pre-2022. Or maybe it was, given that a third-rate power like Ukraine stopped them in their tracks, and they've been unable to make much progress in the three years since. But that mire has degraded their conventional capabilities significantly.
