Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (1) |
Author: luxmain   😊 😞
Number: of 4460 
Subject: Inflation revised. Very annoying!
Date: 02/11/23 6:53 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 0
So, in November and December, inflation statistics for the USA came in lower than expected, prompting and then pushing upwards a fairly big market rally - which has continued until the current week.

But these rally-prompting figures were *wrong* and the data was updated yesterday.

edition.cnn.com - CPI revisions december inflation

November: 0.1% original vs. 0.2% revised.

December: -0.1% original vs. 0.1% revised.

"The newly calibrated Consumer Price Index shows that prices rose 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in December from November versus a previously estimated decline of 0.1%. "

"Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile categories of food and energy, saw upward revisions of 0.1 percentage points in December and November to 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. "

Can you imagine November and December market moves would have happened as they did with *this* data being announced?

Conveniently for the government and central bank, this meant that end of year wage/price negotiations used a lower rate of assumed inflation.

Conveniently for the government and central bank, +0.3% added into the recent past, means that +0.3% is not going to be present in current inflation figures going forward.

It is also interesting that at a time of high and volatile inflation, the methodology used to calculate the number is being modified on the fly.

"the January CPI report, ... will debut some modifications of its own: changing its weighting methodology from consumption patterns collected every two years to a single year of spending data. "

lux

Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to luxmain here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 4,454 posts about Macroeconomic Trends & Risks. The article-length ones it recommended most:
AI Tarpits · 36 recs · 2026
End of an era - profit slowdown · 36 recs · 2023
Control Panel: Trend changes in 2026 · 34 recs · 2026
From the Oregon Bay Area (a blogger) · 33 recs · 2025
Lerner Symmetry Theorem · 32 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (1) |


Announcements
Macroeconomic Trends & Risks FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of Macro | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community