No. of Recommendations: 3
Puhleeze.
There are 105 days left in the race. This nonsense that the rapist felon is "the likely winner" is just complete bullsh!t. If republicans were so convinced that the rapist felon will trounce Harris, they wouldn't be tearing their hair out right now and crying about how unfair it is to Joe that they (republicans) forced him to withdraw from the race. And they wouldn't be laying the groundwork for Trump to skip the debate.
It's important to remember that Harris is also losing to Trump in the polls. She has favorability ratings almost as bad as Biden. A lot of voters think poorly of her. The fact that the GOP rather run against Biden than Harris doesn't mean that they think they're trailing Harris. Just that they thought Biden was the weaker candidate and an easier opponent - and the one they'd tailored their campaign to.
Harris faces many of the same problems that Biden faced - voters prefer Trump on the economy and the border, and those are two very salient issues this campaign cycle. She's not Biden, so maybe voters will see a little daylight between her and things they disliked about the Administration - but not a whole lot. Which is why she's trailing Trump in the polls.
She won't lack for money, but she faces some enormous obstacles taking over at this late date. She's just taking over at the top of the ticket, and has to assemble her top-level infrastructure. As the Veep she needs less introduction/donor facetime than almost anyone else standing in - but it's still something that she's just starting to do at the top of the ticket. And, of course, she's stepping out from the understudy into the starring role - almost certainly she'll make some mistakes and fumbles in the next 105 days, and she's got less time to get her feet under her.
And there's the old thermostatic model of politics. If Harris were to win, the Democrats will have controlled the WH for 16 of 20 years (from Obama to the end of her first term). That doesn't often happen - historically, voters have been reluctant to give one party that much control for so long a period of time. If one party's been in charge a lot over recent history, they're inclined to give the other party the reins for a while.
Harris absolutely could win - the bookies put the race at 60/40 for Trump right now (Harris' personal chances are lower, but that will tighten up once she actually becomes the nominee and the possibility of a different nominee goes away). But that's not the most likely outcome.
So yeah - the race is winnable, but Harris starts off as a serious underdog. The most likely outcome is that Trump wins.
