No. of Recommendations: 3
am i crazy to think global inflation is a lock, and some regional hyperinflation very likely?
if one goes to fundamentals rather then noisy data, here seem the major trends.
a. we know large hot wars are the largest destroyers of capital and drivers of goods inflation.
(we are thankfully not there, and can spend our time on shrewdm)
going down the list...
b1. it seems forgone that the u.s. and china will maintain its defense spending. russia is in a war economy, and india is flexing its gdp to deter china. obviously, much of the EU developed world is looking to ~triple spending.
this may temp boost economies, but is hugely goods inflationary. (guns vs butter)
b2. it also seem foregone that, at some decent pace, global trade will be fracturing. trillions in new capital will need to spent to duplicate existing supply chains in many less efficient locales.
the same goods from newer factories will be hugely inflationary, and this is even if tariffs miraculously become more strategic and less ridiculous.
c. i currently put a huge discount in the fossil transition affecting inflation, as it it has gone full ostrich outside local catastrophes.
finally, in the globe's largest economy, we have the gop with full faith in the mechanisms of the trump\MAGA economic plan. yes, this is the same group as expected lower absolute prices for eggs, cars, and houses on Day1.
the gop expects 0% inflation, and probably for as long as their preferred media tells them whatever excuse is most popular. outside a recession, has this become a 100% contrarian signal?
https://econbrowser.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02... 
