I note the conclusion of Saul's post: 'If you think you can predict all that, the rise, the pandemic, the container ships, the war, the inflation, the interest rate rises, the fear of a recession, etc, more power to you. I sure can't.

What a strawman argument. Nobody is expecting anyone to predict pandemics, wars, container ships and whatnot.

But anyone with a few years of investing experience could see that SaaS stocks were clearly extremely overvalued, and had been for a couple of years.

The problem is that the burst of the bubble is almost impossible to time. I came across Saul's board in 2017-18. In 2019 I made the conscious decision to not touch these stocks, because at some point they were bound to drop 70% and NOT bounce back. Could have been the next day, or years later.

In retrospect of course I was way too early, but like Buffett says, sometime you need to feel like an idiot for a couple of years.

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BTW I actually lost some money on UPST last year, trying to be smart on the way down selling some puts. That's another lesson, if you don't ride them on the way up, don't give into the temptation to dabble with them on the way down.

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