Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (96) |
Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 21944 
Subject: Re: Dividends
Date: 02/08/24 4:05 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 6
I would phrase this as selling 4% of each position you own each year. Whether you choose to measure 4% in share count or current market value at the time of sale, it works out to the same thing, right?

Sure.
The only reason I phrased it as share count is because that number is precisely predictable in advance forever into the future, and emphasizes that the sale quantity is entirely mechanistic. For example, you could put in all the broker orders for the next 20 years in advance.

You can do a forecast of the stock price separately to estimate how much money that raises each period. Prices are hard to predict, but easier than trying to visualize your portfolio value trajectory incorporating a sales schedule at the same time.

It's simply not possible to design a plan that lets one spend the capital while guaranteeing to fund a lifespan of unknown length, while having withdrawals of a predetermined [real] size.
Your choices are having a (probably unacceptable) risk of running out of money, having withdrawals that vary in size somehow. So the main discussion is about what formula to use for the variation in withdrawals.
(You can also have withdrawals that are trivially small and basically have no chance of eating into the capital, but then of course you don't get to spend the capital)

The best solution is to dodge the problem. Cut off the tail of the longevity risk with a pooled scheme like an annuity.

Jim
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (96) |


Announcements
Berkshire Hathaway FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community