Fisher Investments agrees with PTJ. Since the S&P is currently above its 200-dma, they see no reason to be bearish.

I wrote this a few days after I wrote a related post on another board (related post is below), after thinking about Jim saying that he moved a large amount of money from BRK to T-bills with the plan to move it back into BRK after BRK crashed (presumably in the next year or two).

I go back and forth about whether to take some profits off the table or stay invested.

So now I have two different takes from people I respect the opinions of.

I am currently leaning toward this: "IF YOU DON’T HAVE A GOOD REASON TO BE BEARISH, YOU SHOULD BE BULLISH."
Right now my indicators are not signaling to be bearish.

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Previous post:

{ I don't know which is the best board to post this. }


So...a bear market will come sooner or later. When it does, Berkshire will probably become very attractively valued for a while. At that point I dump my T-bills and once again back up the truck.


I have looked at how much my investments have grown in 2024, and am having thoughts about what to do going forward. The S&P500 total return YTD is almost 28%.
A $1M portfolio gained about $280,000. That's a lot to leave invested when valuations are so high and there is a bit of political uncertainty.

If Jim says that he has moved a lot out of stocks and into T-bills, maybe it would be a Good Thing™ to take that entire 2024 gain and put it into T-bills. It sure would be nice to protect that gain.

Last year's (2023) total return was 22.3%. That's, um, about 55% return in 2 years.

FWIW, the T-Bill TR YTD is +5.2% (TBIL), 3 mo Tbills
XBIL, (6 mo) is 4.9%
SHY (1-3 yr treasuries) YTD is 3.65%

I'd hate to get 4%-5% when stocks get 25%, but would hate it even more to get -15% in stocks and lose a big part of that huge gain.

As the saying goes "....pigs get slaughtered."